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On trend-cycle decomposition and data revision

  • Norden, Simon van
  • Tian, Jing
  • Jacobs, Jan
  • Dungey, Mardi

    (Groningen University)

A well-documented property of the Beveridge-Nelson trend-cycle decomposition is the perfect negative correlation between trend and cycle innovations. This paper gives a novel explanation for this negative correlation originating from the Jacobs-van Norden (2011) data revision model. Trend shocks may enter the equation for the cycle or cyclical shocks may enter the trend equation. We discuss economic interpretations and implications, including ltering and smoothing properties.We illustrate the idea with simulations based on the Morley, Nelson and Zivot (2003) outcomes

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Paper provided by University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management) in its series Research Report with number 12009-EEF.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:rugsom:12009-eef
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  1. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
  2. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  3. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
  4. Pagan, Adrian, 1997. "Policy, Theory, and the Cycle," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 19-33, Autumn.
  5. Knetsch, Thomas A., 2005. "Short-run and long-run comovement of GDP and some expenditure aggregates in Germany, France and Italy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,39, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. M. Dungey & J. P. A. M. Jacobs & J. Tian & S. van Norden, 2013. "On the correspondence between data revision and trend-cycle decomposition," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 316-319, March.
  7. Arnold, Lutz G., 2002. "Business Cycle Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199256822, March.
  8. Pierre Perron & Tatsuma Wada, 2005. "Let’s Take a Break: Trends and Cycles in US Real GDP," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2009-006, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Feb 2009.
  9. Charles R. Nelson, 2006. "The Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition in Retrospect and Prospect," Working Papers UWEC-2007-30, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  10. Tommaso Proietti, 2006. "Trend-Cycle Decompositions with Correlated Components," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 61-84.
  11. Oh, Kum Hwa & Zivot, Eric & Creal, Drew, 2008. "The relationship between the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions that are popular in economics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 207-219, October.
  12. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, June.
  13. Alastair Cunningham & Jana Eklund & Christopher Jeffery & George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard, 2007. "A state space approach to extracting the signal from uncertain data," Bank of England working papers 336, Bank of England.
  14. George Evans & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1994. "Information, forecasts and measurement of the business cycle," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10155, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  15. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
  16. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2003. "A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 605-617, August.
  17. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:2:p:181-190 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Andrew Harvey & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Signal extraction and the formulation of unobserved components models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 84-107.
  19. Morley, James C., 2011. "The Two Interpretations Of The Beveridge–Nelson Decomposition," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 419-439, June.
  20. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2005. "VAR estimation and forecasting when data are subject to revision," Working Papers 0501, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  21. Tara M. Sinclair & Dennis W. Jensen & Michael D. Bradley, 2009. "How Well Does "Core" CPI Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Working Papers 2009-13, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  22. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:2:p:173-180 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2008. "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 319-340, 03.
  24. Charles R. Nelson & Jaejoon Lee, 2007. "Expectation horizon and the Phillips Curve: the solution to an empirical puzzle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 161-178.
  25. Morley, James C., 2002. "A state-space approach to calculating the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 123-127, March.
  26. Tara M. Sinclair, 2009. "The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 529-542, 03.
  27. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
  28. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:47:n:2:a:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
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