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On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth

  • Jong-A-Pin, R.

    (Groningen University)

We examine the relationship between political instability and economic growth. Using an exploratory factor analysis we identify four dimensions of political instability: (1) mass civil protest, (2) politically motivated aggression, (3) instability within the political regime and (4) instability of the political regime. We show that individual political instability indicators are generally poor proxies for the underlying dimensions of political instability. Our panel estimates for a sample of 98 countries in the period 1984-2003 indicate that the various dimensions of political instability have different effects on economic growth.

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File URL: http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/296644277
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Paper provided by University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management) in its series Research Report with number 06C05.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:rugsom:06c05
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  1. Chauvet, Lisa, 2003. "Socio-political instability and the allocation of international aid by donors," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/5404, Paris Dauphine University.
  2. Perotti, Roberto & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," Scholarly Articles 4553018, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Jakob Haan, 2007. "Political institutions and economic growth reconsidered," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 281-292, June.
  4. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
  5. Aron, Janine, 2000. "Growth and Institutions: A Review of the Evidence," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(1), pages 99-135, February.
  6. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
  7. Darby, Julia & Li, Chol-Won & Muscatelli, V. Anton, 2004. "Political uncertainty, public expenditure and growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 153-179, March.
  8. Benhabib, Jess & Rustichini, Aldo, 1996. " Social Conflict and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 125-42, March.
  9. Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  10. Campos, Nauro F, 2000. "Who is Afraid of Political Instability?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Chetan Ghate & Quan Vu Le & Paul J. Zak, 2002. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in an Economy Facing Socio-Political Instability," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 308, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  12. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May.
  13. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  14. S. Brock Blomberg, 1994. "Growth, political instability and the defense burden," Research Paper 9420, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  15. Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip & Ozler, Sule & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Scholarly Articles 4553024, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  16. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. " Growth, Income Distribution, and Democracy: What the Data Say," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 149-87, June.
  17. Svensson, Jakob, 1998. "Investment, property rights and political instability: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 1317-1341, July.
  18. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  19. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125517 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Besley, Timothy J. & Persson, Torsten & Sturm, Daniel M, 2005. "Political Competition and Economic Performance: Theory and Evidence from the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 5138, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  22. Alesina, Alberto, et al, 1996. " Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
  23. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-50, November.
  24. Chen, Baizhu & Feng, Yi, 1996. "Some political determinants of economic growth: Theory and empirical implications," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 609-627, December.
  25. Axel Dreher, 2006. "Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1091-1110.
  26. Devereux, Michael B. & Wen, Jean-Francois, 1998. "Political instability, capital taxation, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(9), pages 1635-1651, November.
  27. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2003. "Political Instability, Uncertainty and Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-54, February.
  28. Ades, Alberto & Chua, Hak B, 1997. " Thy Neighbor's Curse: Regional Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 279-304, September.
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