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Will technological progress be sufficient to effectively lead the air transport to a sustainable development in the mid-term (2025)?

  • Chèze, Benoit
  • Chevallier, Julien
  • Gastineau, Pascal

The aim of this article is to investigate whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to be strong enough to offset carbon dioxide (CO2)emissions resulting from the rapid growth of air transport. Aviation CO2 emissions projections are provided at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Total air traffic flows are first forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO2 emissions, through jet fuel demand forecasts, using specific hypothesis and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO2-eq. (a.k.a. “scenario of type I”) recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). None is either compatible with the IPCC scenario of type III, which aims at limiting global warming to 3.2◦C. Thus, aviation CO2 emissions are unlikely to diminish over the next decade unless there is a radical shift in technology and/or travel demand is restricted.

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File URL: http://basepub.dauphine.fr/xmlui/bitstream/123456789/9262/1/12-02-Cahier-R-2012-07-Cheze-Chevallier-Gastineau.pdf
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Paper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/9262.

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Date of creation: Jan 2013
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Publication status: Published in Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2013, Vol. 18, no. 12. pp. 91-96.Length: 5 pages
Handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/9262
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.dauphine.fr/en/welcome.html

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  1. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation," Papers WP244, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  2. Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal & Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5147-5158, September.
  3. Olsthoorn, Xander, 2001. "Carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation: 1950–2050," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 87-93.
  4. Vedantham, Anu & Oppenheimer, Michael, 1998. "Long-term scenarios for aviation: Demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 625-641, July.
  5. Dermot Gately, 1988. "Taking Off: The U.S. Demand for Air Travel and Jet Fuel," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 63-91.
  6. Macintosh, Andrew & Wallace, Lailey, 2009. "International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 264-273, January.
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