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Liquidity contagion: A look at emerging markets

  • Dudek, Jérémy
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    Emerging economies have passed an important stress test during the period 2008-2009 and are now the key drivers for global growth of the world economy. The explosive expansion that emerging markets are showing during the last few years is mainly due to substantial returns that investors made. However, literature exposes that poor liquidity is one of the main reasons for foreign institutional investors not investing in emerging markets. The main contribution is to propose to analyze the liquidity of emerging markets and their effects on the contagion from one another in order to prevent illiquid events or systemic risk. Emerging market liquidity measures are the basis for the sovereign debt market, the deviations of the covered interest parity or the BIL for the foreign exchange market. One classical way to identify contagion is to observe an increase in correlation between asset returns during a crisis period. However, since crisis periods are typically characterized by an increase in volatility, it is crucial to discriminate between volatility and pure-correlation rises. One way to tackle this problem is to use a state-space model with a time-varying volatility specification and apply it to both returns and liquidity indicators.

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    Paper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/8444.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/8444
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