IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Variance risk-premia in CO2markets

  • Chevallier, Julien

This paper proposes a new methodology to measure the volatility of CO2 assets computed as the difference between model-free implied volatility (from option prices) and model-free realized volatility (from high-frequency intraday data), coined as ‘variance risk-premia’ (Carr and Wu, 2009; Bollerslev et al., 2009; Trolle and Schwartz, 2010), during 2008–2011. We find that variance risk-premia are equal to a daily sample average of 0.79 for European Union Allowances and 0.18 for Certified Emissions Reductions. In the spirit of the CAPM, we show that the beta can only explain a small portion, and that macro risk factors specific to CO2 markets and energy volatilities can improve this result. Hence, there exists a systematic variance risk factor in CO2 markets that asks for a highly risk premium. Further analysis shows that variance risk-premia are time-varying, and can be used as strong predictors for forecasting CO2 returns.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Paper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/11713.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Economic Modelling, 2013, Vol. 31, no. 51. pp. 598-605.Length: 7 pages
Handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/11713
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.dauphine.fr/en/welcome.html
More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Chernov, Mikhail, 2007. "On the Role of Risk Premia in Volatility Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 411-426, October.
  2. Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria & Chevallier, Julien & Alberola, Emilie, 2011. "EUA and sCER Phase II Price Drivers: Unveiling the reasons for the existence of the EUA-sCER spread," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/5109, Paris Dauphine University.
  3. Hui Guo & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "Uncovering the risk-return relation in the stock market," Working Papers 2001-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "On the realized volatility of the ECX CO2 emissions 2008 futures contract: distribution, dynamics and forecasting," Working Papers halshs-00387286, HAL.
  5. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June.
  6. Chevallier, Julien & Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2011. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 855-880.
  7. Mark Britten-Jones & Anthony Neuberger, 2000. "Option Prices, Implied Price Processes, and Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 839-866, 04.
  8. Mark Broadie & Mikhail Chernov & Michael Johannes, 2007. "Model Specification and Risk Premia: Evidence from Futures Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1453-1490, 06.
  9. Gurdip Bakshi & Dilip Madan, 2006. "A Theory of Volatility Spreads," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(12), pages 1945-1956, December.
  10. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," NBER Working Papers 8160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Tim Bollerslev & Tzuo Hao & George Tauchen, 2008. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2008-48, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  12. Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2005. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility With Noisy High-Frequency Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1394-1411, December.
  13. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian & Mercier, Ludovic, 2009. "Risk aversion and institutional information disclosure on the European carbon market: A case-study of the 2006 compliance event," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 15-28, January.
  14. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2009. "Variance Risk Premiums," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1311-1341, March.
  15. John T. Scruggs, 1998. "Resolving the Puzzling Intertemporal Relation between the Market Risk Premium and Conditional Market Variance: A Two-Factor Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 575-603, 04.
  16. Chevallier, Julien, 2009. "Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors : a view from the EU ETS," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4210, Paris Dauphine University.
  17. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6970, Paris Dauphine University.
  18. Julien Chevallier, 2010. "Price relationships in the EU emissions trading system," Working Papers halshs-00458728, HAL.
  19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  20. George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
  21. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Macroeconomics, finance, commodities: Interactions with carbon markets in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 557-567, January.
  22. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280.
  23. Awartani, Basel & Corradi, Valentina & Distaso, Walter, 2009. "Assessing Market Microstructure Effects via Realized Volatility Measures with an Application to the Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 251-265.
  24. Chevallier, Julien, 2010. "Modelling risk premia in CO2 allowances spot and futures prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 717-729, May.
  25. Carlos Pinho & Mara Madaleno, 2011. "Links between spot and futures allowances: ECX and EEX markets comparison," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 35(2/3/4), pages 101-131.
  26. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
  27. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  28. Chevallier, Julien & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "Jump-robust estimation of realized volatility in the EU emissions trading scheme," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4596, Paris Dauphine University.
  29. Rittler, Daniel, 2012. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the European Union emissions trading scheme: A high-frequency analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 774-785.
  30. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86.
  31. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
  32. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
  33. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6969, Paris Dauphine University.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/11713. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alexandre Faure)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.