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Variance risk-premia in CO2markets

  • Chevallier, Julien

This paper proposes a new methodology to measure the volatility of CO2 assets computed as the difference between model-free implied volatility (from option prices) and model-free realized volatility (from high-frequency intraday data), coined as ‘variance risk-premia’ (Carr and Wu, 2009; Bollerslev et al., 2009; Trolle and Schwartz, 2010), during 2008–2011. We find that variance risk-premia are equal to a daily sample average of 0.79 for European Union Allowances and 0.18 for Certified Emissions Reductions. In the spirit of the CAPM, we show that the beta can only explain a small portion, and that macro risk factors specific to CO2 markets and energy volatilities can improve this result. Hence, there exists a systematic variance risk factor in CO2 markets that asks for a highly risk premium. Further analysis shows that variance risk-premia are time-varying, and can be used as strong predictors for forecasting CO2 returns.

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Paper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/11713.

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Date of creation: Mar 2013
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Publication status: Published in Economic Modelling, 2013, Vol. 31, no. 51. pp. 598-605.Length: 7 pages
Handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/11713
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.dauphine.fr/en/welcome.html

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  1. Chevallier, Julien, 2010. "Modelling risk premia in CO2 allowances spot and futures prices," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4227, Paris Dauphine University.
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  13. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "On the realized volatility of the ECX CO2 emissions 2008 futures contract: distribution, dynamics and forecasting," Working Papers halshs-00387286, HAL.
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  20. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian & Mercier, Ludovic, 2009. "Risk aversion and institutional information disclosure on the European carbon market: A case-study of the 2006 compliance event," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 15-28, January.
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  24. Chernov, Mikhail, 2007. "On the Role of Risk Premia in Volatility Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 411-426, October.
  25. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Price relationships in the EU emissions trading system," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4612, Paris Dauphine University.
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  28. Chevallier, Julien & Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2009. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4620, Paris Dauphine University.
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  32. George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
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  35. Mansanet-Bataller, Maria & Chevallier, Julien & Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan & Alberola, Emilie, 2011. "EUA and sCER phase II price drivers: Unveiling the reasons for the existence of the EUA-sCER spread," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1056-1069, March.
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