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Currency futures and currency crises

  • Röthig, Andreas

Since financial derivatives are key instruments for risk taking as well as risk reduction, it is only straightforward to examine their role in currency crises. This paper addresses this issue by investigating the impact of currency futures trading on the underlying exchange rates. After a discussion of trading mechanisms and trader types, the linkage between futures trading activity and spot market turbulence is modelled using a VAR-GARCH approach for the exchange rates of Australia, Canada, Japan, Korea and Switzerland in terms of the US dollar. The empirical results indicate that there is a positive relationship between currency futures trading activity and spot volatility. Moreover, in the case of four out of the total of five currencies discussed in this paper, futures trading activity adds significantly to spot volatility.

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Paper provided by Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL) in its series Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics with number 4022.

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Date of creation: May 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics . 136 (2004-05)
Handle: RePEc:dar:ddpeco:4022
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  1. Christian Jochum & Laura Kodres, 1998. "Does the Introduction of Futures on Emerging Market Currencies Destabilize the Underlying Currencies?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(3), pages 486-521, September.
  2. Jarrow, Robert A., 1992. "Market Manipulation, Bubbles, Corners, and Short Squeezes," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(03), pages 311-336, September.
  3. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1981. "Cross Hedging," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1182-96, December.
  4. Dodd, Randall, 2002. "Derivatives, the Shape of International Capital Flows and the Virtues of Prudential Regulation," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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  6. Shastri, Kuldeep & Sultan, Jahangir & Tandon, Kishore, 1996. "The impact of the listing of options in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 37-64, February.
  7. Jarrow, Robert A., 1994. "Derivative Security Markets, Market Manipulation, and Option Pricing Theory," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(02), pages 241-261, June.
  8. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J, 1992. " Futures-Trading Activity and Stock Price Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 2015-34, December.
  9. J. Austin Murphy, 1986. "Futures fund performance: A test of the effectiveness of technical analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 175-185, 06.
  10. Eric Ghysels & Junghoon Seon, 2000. "The Asian Financial Crisis: The Role of Derivative Securities Trading and Foreign Investors," CIRANO Working Papers 2000s-11, CIRANO.
  11. Christian Jochum & Laura E. Kodres, 1998. "Does the Introduction of Futures on Emerging Market Currencies Destabilize the Underlying Currencies?," IMF Working Papers 98/13, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Eric V. Clifton, 1985. "The currency futures market and interbank foreign exchange trading," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 375-384, 09.
  13. Kumar, Praveen & Seppi, Duane J, 1992. " Futures Manipulation with "Cash Settlement."," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1485-502, September.
  14. Eaker, Mark R. & Grant, Dwight M., 1987. "Cross-hedging foreign currency risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 85-105, March.
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