Crude Oil Price Determinants
Based on monthly observations, I specify an econometric model capturing the driving forces behind the crude oil price series in recent years. A large set of covariates, such as supply and demand variables as well as futures market variables, is used to test the impact on the crude oil price. Current price movements are a result of scarce refining capacity and speculators betting on higher prices. The results also question OPEC’s market power.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics . 186 (2007-08)|
|Note:||for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/35713/|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: ++49 (0)6151 16-2701
Fax: ++49 (0)6151 16-6508
Web page: http://www.wi.tu-darmstadt.de/fachgebiete/fachgebiete_4/volkswirtschaftlichefachgebiete.de.jsp
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Asche, Frank & Gjolberg, Ole & Volker, Teresa, 2003. "Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 289-301, May.
- DEES Stéphane & KARADELOGLOU Pavlos & KAUFMANN Robert & SANCHEZ Marcelo, .
"Modelling the World Oil Market: Assessment of a Quarterly Econometric Model,"
- Dees, Stephane & Karadeloglou, Pavlos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Sanchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 178-191, January.
- Foster, Andrew J., 1996. "Price discovery in oil markets: a time varying analysis of the 1990-1991 Gulf conflict," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 231-246, July.
- de La Grandville, Olivier, 1980. "Capital Theory, Optimal Growth, and Efficiency Conditions with Exhaustible Resources," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(7), pages 1763-76, November.
- Griffin, James M, 1985. "OPEC Behavior: A Test of Alternative Hypotheses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 954-63, December.
- Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990.
"Seasonal integration and cointegration,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
- Hyllerberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal Integration And Cointegration," Papers 0-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Krichene, Noureddine, 2002. "World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 557-576, November.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1998.
"Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with an intercept,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1998,51, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process With An Intercept," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 373-406, June.
- De Santis, Roberto A., 2003.
"Crude oil price fluctuations and Saudi Arabia's behaviour,"
Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 155-173, March.
- Roberto A. De Santis, 2000. "Crude Oil Price Fluctuations and Saudi Arabian Behaviour," Kiel Working Papers 1014, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Greene, David L. & Hopson, Janet L. & Li, Jia, 2006. "Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist's perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 515-531, March.
- Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. " Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-45, December.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000.
"Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
- Z. Wang, 2003. "Hedonic prices for crude oil," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(13), pages 857-861.
- Asano, Hirokatsu, 2002. "An empirical analysis of lumpy investment: the case of US petroleum refining industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 629-645, November.
- Anne-Marie Brook & Robert W.R. Price & Douglas Sutherland & Niels Westerlund & Christophe André, 2004. "Oil Price Developments: Drivers, Economic Consequences and Policy Responses," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 412, OECD Publishing.
- Considine, Timothy J. & Larson, Donald F., 2001. "Uncertainty and the convenience yield in crude oil price backwardations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 533-548, September.
- Clifton T. Jones, 1990. "OPEC Behaviour Under Falling Prices: Implications For Cartel Stability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 117-130.
- Kevin F. Forbes & Ernest M. Zampelli, 2000. "Technology and the Exploratory Success Rate in the U.S. Offshore," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 109-120.
- Bahram Adrangi & A. Chatrath & Frank Song & Ferenc Szidarovszky, 2006. "Petroleum spreads and the term structure of futures prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(16), pages 1917-1929.
- Herrera, Ana Maria & Hamilton, James D., 2001. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4qp0p0v5, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Curlee, T. Randall & Turhollow, Anthony F. & Das, Sujit, 1988. "Oil supply disruptions and modelling methodologies : The role of LP models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 147-154, April.
- Morris A. Adelman, 1993. "Modelling World Oil Supply," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-32.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
- Robert K. Kaufmann, Stephane Dees, Pavlos Karadeloglou and Marcelo Sanchez, 2004. "Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 67-90.
- Philip Hans Franses & Bart Hobijn, 1997. "Critical values for unit root tests in seasonal time series," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 25-48.
- Kaufmann, Robert K., 1995. "A model of the world oil market for project LINK Integrating economics, geology and politics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 165-178, April.
- Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Li, Huimin, 2004. "The impact of the Asian crisis on the behavior of US and international petroleum prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 135-160, January.
- Gjolberg, Ole & Johnsen, Thore, 1999. "Risk management in the oil industry: can information on long-run equilibrium prices be utilized?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 517-527, December.
- Tvedt, Jostein, 2002. "The effect of uncertainty and aggregate investments on crude oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 615-628, November.
- Ramcharran, Harri, 2002. "Oil production responses to price changes: an empirical application of the competitive model to OPEC and non-OPEC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 97-106, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dar:ddpeco:35713. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dekanatssekretariat)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.