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Imperfect Knowledge and Asset Price Dynamics: Modeling the Forecasting of Rational Agents, Dynamic Prospect Theory and Uncertainty Premia on Foreign Exchange

  • Frydman, R.
  • Goldberg, M.D.
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    Models using the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) are widely recognized to be inconsistent with the observed behavior of premia in financial markets, as well as other features of asset price dynamics. Moreover, many reasons have been advanced as to why the REH cannot generally represent, even approximately, the expectations behavior of individually rational agents. In this paper, we develop a new model of the equilibrium premium in the foreign exchange market that replaces the REH with the Imperfect Knowledge Forecasting (IKF) framework. Because we maintain that agents must cope with imperfect knowledge and that they are not grossly irrational, our IKF approach imposes only qualitative conditions on the formation of individual forecasting models and their updating. We also develop a dynamic extension of the original formulation of Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory. We find that under IKF and dynamic prospect theory, the equilibrium premium on foreign exchange is positively related to the gap between the aggregate forecast of the exchange rate and its historical benchmark level. We test this implication, using survey data on the German mark-U.S. dollar exchange rate, and find that the behavior of the ex ante premium on foreign exchange is consistent with our model of the premium.

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    Paper provided by C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University in its series Working Papers with number 03-03.

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    Length: 57 pages
    Date of creation: 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cvs:starer:03-03
    Contact details of provider: Postal: C.V. Starr Center, Department of Economics, New York University, 19 W. 4th Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY 10012
    Phone: (212) 998-8936
    Fax: (212) 995-3932
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    17. Lui, Yu-Hon & Mole, David, 1998. "The use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers: Hong Kong evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-545, June.
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    23. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2001. "Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the DM/$ Exchange Rate: Temporal Instability and the Monetary Model," Working Papers 50, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    24. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2002. "Imperfect Knowledge, Temporal Instability and an Uncertainty Premium: Towards a Resolution of the Excess-Returns Puzzle in the Foreign Exchange Market," Discussion Papers 02-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Nov 2002.
    25. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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