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Evolution of Instability on the French Labour Market during the Last Thirty Years

  • R. AEBERHARDT

    (Insee)

  • C. MARBOT

    (Insee)

We use a 30-year longitudinal matched employer-employee database to describe the evolution of job stability by studying the duration of employment spells. The paper proposes two different perspectives aiming at describing and characterizing this evolution. Firstly, the analysis of survival rates and the modeling of the duration of the spells clearly show that instability increased in the last 30 years. Moreover there is a variety of situations depending on the characteristics of the employees and the firms. The increase in the instability is particularly strong in the first two years of the jobs. The youngest individuals are both the most unstable and the ones who have experienced the highest rise in instability. Executives are the most stable employees, and after a period of convergence between socio-occupational categories, the difference became larger, but in a different way among men and among women. The stability in service industry is lower than in other industries and it evolved in a less favourable way. In a second part, we study time-invariant heterogeneity at both firm and individual levels with a double fixed effects model. Our estimates suggest in particular that the younger the cohort, the more their individual instability and the more frequently they work in firms which do not keep their employees long. Moreover, office clerks and service workers are the less stable socio-occupational categories in terms of individual stability, while blue-collar workers are the ones who work in the firms that keep their employees for the shortest periods of time.

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File URL: http://www.insee.fr/en/publications-et-services/docs_doc_travail/G2013-08bis.pdf
File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2013-08
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Paper provided by Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE in its series Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE with number g2013-08.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2013-08
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  1. Thomas Cornelißen & Olaf Hübler, 2011. "Unobserved Individual and Firm Heterogeneity in Wage and Job‐Duration Functions: Evidence from German Linked Employer–Employee Data," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(4), pages 469-489, November.
  2. Robert G. Valletta, 1998. "Declining job security," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 98-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Mumford, Karen A. & Smith, Peter N., 2004. "Job Tenure in Britain: Employee Characteristics Versus Workplace Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 1085, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Kenneth A. Swinnerton & Howard Wial, 1995. "Is job stability declining in the U.S. economy?," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 48(2), pages 293-304, January.
  5. Neumark, David & Polsky, Daniel & Hansen, Daniel, 1999. "Has Job Stability Declined Yet? New Evidence for the 1990s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages S29-64, October.
  6. David Neumark & Deborah Reed, 2002. "Employment Relationships in the New Economy," NBER Working Papers 8910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Yannick L’Horty, 2004. "Instabilité de l’emploi : quelles ruptures de tendance?," Documents de recherche 04-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
  8. Givord, Pauline & Maurin, Eric, 2003. "Changes in Job Security and their Causes: An Empirical Analysis for France, 1982-2002," CEPR Discussion Papers 3830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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