From the financial crisis to the economic crisis The impact of the financial trouble of 2007-2008 on the growth of seven advanced countries
The financial crisis started in the United States in 2007 on the subprime mortgage market and, then, gradually spread to all financial markets and strongly impacted growth in the main advanced countries through the years 2008 and 2009. Given its scope and its subsequent uncertainty, we discuss the capacity of macroeconometric models estimated on the past to quantify its various transmission channels. We try to measure the total impact of the crisis on the economy of seven advanced countries and on the euro area as a whole using the macroeconomic multinational model NiGEM. During the years 2008 and 2009, Germany suffered from a particularly strong drop in world trade, which would explain more than a half of the effect of the crisis measured in this way in 2009. The United Kingdom and the United States may especially have been affected by wealth effects and a strong drop in their inner demand. This drop may partly have been due to credit tightening. Japan seems to be the most affected country in 2009: the drop in foreign trade was exacerbated by the appreciation of the yen and investment seems to have strongly over-reacted to the fall in activity. A contrario, the fact that France suffered from a less marked drop in output in 2009 might be explained by an absence of over-reaction in economic behaviours and less sensitivity to the fall in world trade.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 15 Boulevard Gabriel Peri 92244 Malakoff Cedex|
Phone: 01 41 17 50 50
Web page: http://www.insee.fr
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bec, Frédérique & Gollier, Christian, 2009.
"Cyclicality and Term Structure of Value-at-Risk in Europe,"
IDEI Working Papers
587, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Bec, Frédérique & Gollier, Christian, 2009. "Cyclicality and Term Structure of Value-at-Risk in Europe," TSE Working Papers 09-035, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
- Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2010. "Aggregate Consumption in Times of Crisis: The Role of Financial Frictions -super-1," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(4), pages 627-648, December.
- Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2012.
"Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 134-146.
- Bricongne, J-C. & Fontagné, L. & Gaulier, G. & Taglioni, D. & Vicard, V., 2009. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Working papers 265, Banque de France.
- Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2010. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Working Paper Series 1245, European Central Bank.
- Jean-Charles Bricongne & Lionel Fontagné & Guillaume Gaulier & Daria Taglioni & Vincent Vicard, 2012. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01299846, HAL.
- Jean-Charles Bricongne & Lionel Fontagné & Guillaume Gaulier & Vincent Vicard & Daria Taglioni, 2012. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," PSE - Labex "OSE-Ouvrir la Science Economique" hal-00639897, HAL.
- Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane, 2009. "Financial Crises: Past Lessons and Policy Implications," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 668, OECD Publishing.
- Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012.
"The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
- Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane, 2009. "The Effect of Financial Crises on Potential Output: New Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 699, OECD Publishing.
- Sanders, Anthony, 2008. "The subprime crisis and its role in the financial crisis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 254-261, December.
- Vladimir Klyuev & Paul S. Mills, 2006.
"Is Housing Wealth An 'ATM'? the Relationship Between Household Wealth, Home Equity withdrawal, and Saving Rates,"
IMF Working Papers
06/162, International Monetary Fund.
- Vladimir Klyuev & Paul Mills, 2007. "Is Housing Wealth an “ATM”? The Relationship Between Household Wealth, Home Equity Withdrawal, and Saving Rates," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(3), pages 539-561, July.
- Christophe Blot & Xavier Timbeau, 2009.
"Du chaos financier au K.O. économique,"
Revue de l'OFCE,
Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 149-178.
- Subir Lall & Roberto Cardarelli & Selim Elekdag, 2009. "Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 09/100, International Monetary Fund.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/4184 is not listed on IDEAS
- Vincent Labhard & Gabriel Sterne & Chris Young, 2005. "Wealth and consumption: an assessment of the international evidence," Bank of England working papers 275, Bank of England.
- David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Banking Crises in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 683, OECD Publishing.
- Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
- Matthieu Darracq-Pariès & Hélène Erkel-Rousse, 2002.
"Origines et conséquence des incertitudes pesant sur le solde commercial de la zone euro,"
Economie & Prévision,
La Documentation Française, vol. 0(1), pages 215-230.
- Matthieu Darracq-Paries & Hélène Erkel-Rousse, 2002. "Origines et conséquence des incertitudes pesant sur le solde commercial de la zone euro," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 152(1), pages 215-230.
- repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2010:x:4 is not listed on IDEAS
- Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
- Tamim Bayoumi & Ola Melander, 2008. "Credit Matters; Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 08/169, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2011-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (D3E)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.