What medium-term growth rates after the crisis?
The financial crisis originated in the United States in 2007 and, then, spread in all the economies of the world. After a drop in activity of historic magnitude, first signs of recovery were recorded in 2009. However, our study of previous banking crises that have taken place in OECD countries over the last forty years leads one to expect a very gradual return of growth rates to their pre-crisis values, with long-lasting losses for the level of GDP. According to our estimations, average losses observed during past banking crises occurred through a reduction in capital stocks, an increase in unemployment rates and a drop in participation rates. Conversely, past banking crises seemed to have had little impact on total factor productivity. In France, the 1992-1993 crisis, which shares some common features with the current crisis, had also long-lasting negative impacts on the employment and unemployment rates. Employment-rate losses were fairly similar for men and women. Ten years passed before the overall unemployment rate returned to its pre-crisis level. Based on various post-crisis scenarios, we illustrate the mechanical medium-term impact of the current crisis on public finances, whithout any fiscal adjustment after 2012. Even in the scenario of a complete recovery by 2018 of GDP losses recorded in 2008 and 2009, the impact on the public debt would exceed 20 % of GDP ten years after the crisis as a result of declining revenues and increasing interest payments. The impact would be still higher in less favourable scenarios.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 01 41 17 50 50
Web page: http://www.insee.fr
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2005.
"Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery,"
IMF Working Papers
05/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012.
"The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
- Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane, 2009. "The Effect of Financial Crises on Potential Output: New Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 699, OECD Publishing.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008.
"This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises,"
CEMA Working Papers
595, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 13882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence M. Ball, 2009. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 14818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
- Peter Klenow & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 1997. "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 73-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2010-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (D3E)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.