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Short-term contracts: trap or stepping stone toward stable employment?





This paper focuses on labor market transitions and especially on those involving fixed-term contracts. Our contribution is twofold: first, we provide an accurate measure of labor market transitions and focus on transitions from fixed-term contracts to open-ended contracts or unemployment (dealing with the "stepping-stone or dead-end" question) ; second, we analyze the potential incentive effect of fixed-term contracts on effort. To deal with unobserved heterogeneity, we use a dynamic multinomial logit with fixed effects. We estimate the model on the French Labor Force Survey (2002-2008) which provides detailed information on quarterly transitions. We construct an indicator of effort for fixed-term workers based on a compared weekly working time. We find that fixed-term contracts provide slightly better perspectives than unemployment. However, we don't find evidence of any significant impact of working more on the probability of getting an open-ended contract.

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File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2009-04
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Paper provided by Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE in its series Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE with number g2009-04.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2009-04
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  1. Michael Pfaffermayr & Peter Egger & Andrea Weber, 2007. "Sectoral adjustment of employment to shifts in outsourcing and trade: evidence from a dynamic fixed effects multinomial logit model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 559-580.
  2. Martin Browning & Jesus Carro, 2006. "Heterogeneity in dynamic discrete choice models," Economics Series Working Papers 287, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
  4. Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Fernández‐Val & Jinyong Hahn & Whitney Newey, 2013. "Average and Quantile Effects in Nonseparable Panel Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(2), pages 535-580, 03.
  5. David Autor & Susan Houseman, 2009. "Do Temporary-Help Jobs Improve Labor Market Outcomes for Low-Skilled Workers? Evidence from 'Work First'," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 05-124, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  6. Romain Aeberhardt & Laurent Davezies, 2011. "Practical Guidelines for the Estimation and Inference of a Dynamic Logistic Model with Fixed-Effects," Working Papers 2011-08, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  7. Dagsvik, John K. & Strøm, Steinar, 2004. "Sectoral labor supply, choice restrictions and functional form," Memorandum 13/2004, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  8. Maia Güell & Barbara Petrongolo, 2003. "How Binding are Legal Limits? Transitions from Termporary to Permanent Work in Spain," Working Papers 75, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  9. Ichino, Andrea & Mealli, Fabrizia & Nannicini, Tommaso, 2006. "From Temporary Help Jobs to Permanent Employment: What Can We Learn from Matching Estimators and their Sensitivity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5736, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Alison L. Booth & Marco Francesconi & Jeff Frank, 2002. "Temporary Jobs: Stepping Stones or Dead Ends?," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 8, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  11. Liliane Bonnal & Denis Fougère & Anne Sérandon, 1997. "Evaluating the Impact of French Employment Policies on Individual Labour Market Histories," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 683-713.
  12. Magnac, Thierry, 2000. "Subsidised Training and Youth Employment: Distinguishing Unobserved Heterogeneity from State Dependence in Labour Market Histories," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(466), pages 805-37, October.
  13. Bartolucci, Francesco & Nigro, Valentina, 2012. "Pseudo conditional maximum likelihood estimation of the dynamic logit model for binary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 102-116.
  14. Francesco Bartolucci & Valentina Nigro, 2010. "A Dynamic Model for Binary Panel Data With Unobserved Heterogeneity Admitting a √n-Consistent Conditional Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 719-733, 03.
  15. Engellandt, Axel & Riphahn, Regina, 2004. "Temporary Contracts and Employee Effort," CEPR Discussion Papers 4178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Gagliarducci, Stefano, 2005. "The dynamics of repeated temporary jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 429-448, August.
  17. Boone, Jan & van Ours, Jan C., 2006. "Are recessions good for workplace safety?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1069-1093, November.
  18. Fabio Berton & Francesco Devicienti & Lia Pacelli, 2011. "Are temporary jobs a port of entry into permanent employment?: Evidence from matched employer-employee," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(8), pages 879-899, November.
  19. Dagsvik, John K, 1994. "Discrete and Continuous Choice, Max-Stable Processes, and Independence from Irrelevant Attributes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1179-1205, September.
  20. Thierry Magnac & Michael Visser, 1998. "Transition Models with Measurement Errors," Working Papers 98-22, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  21. Zijl, Marloes & van den Berg, Gerard J. & Heyma, Arjan, 2004. "Stepping Stones for the Unemployed: The Effect of Temporary Jobs on the Duration until Regular Work," IZA Discussion Papers 1241, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  22. Heckman, James J, 1991. "Identifying the Hand of the Past: Distinguishing State Dependence from Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 75-79, May.
  23. Bo E. Honoré & Ekaterini Kyriazidou, 2000. "Panel Data Discrete Choice Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 839-874, July.
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