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Short-term contracts: trap or stepping stone toward stable employment?

Listed author(s):
  • P. GIVORD

    (Insee)

  • L. WILNER

    (Crest)

This paper focuses on labor market transitions and especially on those involving fixed-term contracts. Our contribution is twofold: first, we provide an accurate measure of labor market transitions and focus on transitions from fixed-term contracts to open-ended contracts or unemployment (dealing with the "stepping-stone or dead-end" question) ; second, we analyze the potential incentive effect of fixed-term contracts on effort. To deal with unobserved heterogeneity, we use a dynamic multinomial logit with fixed effects. We estimate the model on the French Labor Force Survey (2002-2008) which provides detailed information on quarterly transitions. We construct an indicator of effort for fixed-term workers based on a compared weekly working time. We find that fixed-term contracts provide slightly better perspectives than unemployment. However, we don't find evidence of any significant impact of working more on the probability of getting an open-ended contract.

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File URL: http://www.insee.fr/fr/publications-et-services/docs_doc_travail/G2009-04.pdf
File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2009-04
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Paper provided by Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE in its series Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE with number g2009-04.

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Date of creation: 2009
Handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2009-04
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  1. Alison L. Booth & Marco Francesconi & Jeff Frank, 2002. "Temporary Jobs: Stepping Stones Or Dead Ends?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages 189-213, June.
  2. Romain Aeberhardt & Laurent Davezies, 2011. "Practical Guidelines for the Estimation and Inference of a Dynamic Logistic Model with Fixed-Effects," Working Papers 2011-08, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  3. David Autor & Susan Houseman, 2009. "Do Temporary-Help Jobs Improve Labor Market Outcomes for Low-Skilled Workers? Evidence from 'Work First'," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 05-124, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  4. John K. Dagsvik & Steinar Strøm, 2004. "Sectoral Labor Supply, Choice Restrictions and Functional Form," Discussion Papers 388, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  5. Magnac, Thierry, 2000. "Subsidised Training and Youth Employment: Distinguishing Unobserved Heterogeneity from State Dependence in Labour Market Histories," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(466), pages 805-837, October.
  6. Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
  7. Martin Browning & Jesus M. Carro, 2010. "Heterogeneity in dynamic discrete choice models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(1), pages 1-39, 02.
  8. Boone, J. & van Ours, J.C., 2006. "Are recessions good for workplace safety?," Other publications TiSEM 1bf0f677-8071-4434-982c-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  9. Dagsvik, John K, 1994. "Discrete and Continuous Choice, Max-Stable Processes, and Independence from Irrelevant Attributes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1179-1205, September.
  10. Engellandt, Axel & Riphahn, Regina, 2004. "Temporary Contracts and Employee Effort," CEPR Discussion Papers 4178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Zijl, Marloes & van den Berg, Gerard J & Heyma, Arjan, 2004. "Stepping-stones for the unemployed: The effect of temporary jobs on the duration until regular work," Working Paper Series 2004:19, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  12. Liliane Bonnal & Denis Fougère & Anne Sérandon, 1997. "Evaluating the Impact of French Employment Policies on Individual Labour Market Histories," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 683-713.
  13. Guell, Maia & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2007. "How binding are legal limits? Transitions from temporary to permanent work in Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 153-183, April.
  14. Francesco Bartolucci & Valentina Nigro, 2010. "A Dynamic Model for Binary Panel Data With Unobserved Heterogeneity Admitting a √n-Consistent Conditional Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 719-733, 03.
  15. Bo E. Honoré & Ekaterini Kyriazidou, 2000. "Panel Data Discrete Choice Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 839-874, July.
  16. Michael Pfaffermayr & Peter Egger & Andrea Weber, 2007. "Sectoral adjustment of employment to shifts in outsourcing and trade: evidence from a dynamic fixed effects multinomial logit model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 559-580.
  17. Bartolucci, Francesco & Nigro, Valentina, 2012. "Pseudo conditional maximum likelihood estimation of the dynamic logit model for binary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 102-116.
  18. Gagliarducci, Stefano, 2005. "The dynamics of repeated temporary jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 429-448, August.
  19. Thierry Magnac & Michael Visser, 1999. "Transition Models With Measurement Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 466-474, August.
  20. Andrea Ichino & Fabrizia Mealli & Tommaso Nannicini, 2008. "From temporary help jobs to permanent employment: what can we learn from matching estimators and their sensitivity?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 305-327.
  21. José Varejão & Pedro Portugal, 2003. "Why Do Firms Use Fixed-Term Contracts?," CEF.UP Working Papers 0310, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  22. Heckman, James J, 1991. "Identifying the Hand of the Past: Distinguishing State Dependence from Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 75-79, May.
  23. Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Fernández‐Val & Jinyong Hahn & Whitney Newey, 2013. "Average and Quantile Effects in Nonseparable Panel Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(2), pages 535-580, 03.
  24. Fabio Berton, 2011. "Are temporary jobs a port of entry into permanent employment?," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(8), pages 879-899, November.
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