What is the impact of oil price changes on French growth?
The two oil shocks of the 1970s reduced the GDP growth rate. Since that period, sudden oil price increases have been considered as a major source of economic slowdown. We estimate VAR models and Markov-Switching models to evaluate the impact of oil price increases on French growth. Our results indicate a breakdown in the relationship between oil prices and economic activity at the beginning of the 1980s. Over the period 1980-2006, our estimations show a slight negative effect of oil price increases only during low-growth phases. Our models also underlight a slowdown in the foreign demand following an oil price increase. The GDP growth rate is indirectly affected by this foreign demand decrease.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 15 Boulevard Gabriel Peri 92244 Malakoff Cedex|
Phone: 01 41 17 50 50
Web page: http://www.insee.fr
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2007-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (D3E)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.