IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Nonparametric Forecasting of the Manufacturing Output Growth with Firm-level Survey Data

Listed author(s):
  • G. BIAU

    (Institut de Mathématiques et de Modélisation de Montpellier UMR CNRS 5149)

  • O. BIAU



    (Laboratoire de Statistique,Université Rennes 2)

Registered author(s):

    A large majority of summary indicators derived from the individual responses to qualitative Business Tendency Survey questions (which are mostly three-modality questions) result from standard aggregation and quantification methods. This is typically the case for the indicators called balances of opinion, which are the most currently used in short term analysis and considered by forecasters as explanatory variables in linear models. In the present paper, we discuss a new statistical approach to forecast the manufacturing growth from firm-survey responses. We base our predictions on nonparametric forecasting algorithms inspired by statistical pattern recognition, such as the k- nearest neighbors and random forest regression methods, which are known to enjoy good generalization properties. Our algorithms exploit the heterogeneity of the survey responses, work fast, and allow the treatment of missing values. Starting from a real application on a French data set related to the manufacturing sector, we argue that these procedures lead to significantly better results than more traditional competing methods.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2006-06
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE in its series Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE with number g2006-06.

    in new window

    Date of creation: 2006
    Handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2006-06
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    15 Boulevard Gabriel Peri 92244 Malakoff Cedex

    Phone: 01 41 17 50 50
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2006-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (D3E)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.