IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Modelling Demographic Events in the Microsimulation Model DESTINIE

Listed author(s):
  • M. DUÉE


Registered author(s):

    This paper presents a new modelling of demographic events in the microsimulation model Destinie: union formations, union disruptions and births. The previous modelling was based on the 1997 Insee Survey on Young People and Job Histories, whose sample was of limited size (20 000 persons aged 19 to 45). This new version is based on the 1999 Family History Survey whose sample is large enough (280 000 persons aged at least 18) to take into account more covariates than before. In particular we systematically introduce age as a covariate; the age at leaving school, the only variable that represents social heterogeneity in the model Destinie, is also used more systematically than in the previous version. The probabilities are estimated between 1995 and 1999 using logistic regressions. As this period does not necessary correspond to a steady state, we have to adjust the intercepts in the equations so that simulations are consistent with some aggregates. In particular, simulations are consistent with a fertility of 1.9 children per woman, which corresponds to the observed fertility since 2000, and an average age at birth of 30 years. For women, simulations lead to satisfactory results for completed fertility, fertility rate by age and marital status at each age. Thus, the marital status appears to be a valid covariate for modelling transitions on the labour market. Results for men remain less satisfactory.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2005-15
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE in its series Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE with number g2005-15.

    in new window

    Date of creation: 2005
    Handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2005-15
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    15 Boulevard Gabriel Peri 92244 Malakoff Cedex

    Phone: 01 41 17 50 50
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    in new window

    1. M. Duée & C. Rebillard, 2004. "Old age disability in France: a long run projection," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2004-02, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
    2. Laurent Toulemon & Magali Mazuy, 2001. "Les naissances sont retardées mais la fécondité est stable," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 56(4), pages 611-644.
    3. I. Robert-Bobee, 2001. "Modelling demographic behaviours in the French microsimulation model Destinie: An analysis of future change in completed fertility," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2001-14, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
    4. Didier Blanchet & Jean-Marie Chanut, 1998. "Les retraites individuelles à long terme : une projection par microsimulation," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 315(1), pages 95-106.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2005-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (D3E)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.