Retirement conditions according to age at leaving school: a prospective analysis for the 1945-1974 cohorts
The French pension reforms of 1993 and 2003 aimed at moderating futures increases of the pension burden for the population of working age and for public finances. Such a moderation cannot be obtained without any hardening of retirement conditions. At the individual level, the incidence of such changes will depend on various criterias: gender, social status, age at entry in the labour force, continuity of ones career. This paper concentrates on one particular variable: the age at exit from schooling which is a joint proxy for social status and age at entry in the labour force. It uses the Destinie microsimulation model to project retirement conditions for cohorts 1935-1974 according to this indicator, distinguishing between workers from the private and the public sectors. The effects of the 2003 reform are more pronounced in the latter group, which had not been affected by the previous 1993 reform. The conclusion of the paper recalls the limits of such an exercise and outlines the various aspects of simulation tools that deserve future improvements.
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