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Public Debt Sustainability: Some Results on the French Case

  • J. BOISSINOT

    (Insee)

  • C. L'ANGEVIN

    (Insee)

  • B. MONFORT

    (Insee)

Registered author(s):

    In France, government debt steadily rose from just below 20% of GDP in 1980 to more than 60% today. This raises concerns about the sustainability of public finances i.e. whether the government's intertemporal budget constraint can be satisfied without a major change in fiscal policy practices and orientations. Public finance developments in France between 1978 and 2002 are found to be weakly sustainable. Contrary to a situation of strong sustainability, where, in the long run, changes in government revenues and spending match, there has been a persistent gap between public spending and revenues developments. The dynamics of public debt is captured by breaking down the growth of government debt into different components within a cointegrated VAR model. This enables us to identify the trends that explain the strong persistence in the growth

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    File URL: http://www.insee.fr/en/publications-et-services/docs_doc_travail/G2004-10.pdf
    File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2004-10
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    Paper provided by Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE in its series Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE with number g2004-10.

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    Date of creation: 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2004-10
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    1. Francisco de Castro & José M. González-Páramo & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2001. "Evaluating the dynamics of fiscal policy in Spain: patterns of interdependence and consistency of public expenditure and revenues," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0103, Banco de Espa�a.
    2. Feve, Patrick & Henin, Pierre-Yves, 2000. " Assessing Effective Sustainability of Fiscal Policy within the G-7," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 175-95, May.
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