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Can geography lock a society in stagnation?

  • DAO, Nguyen Thang
  • DAVILA, Julio

Yes. By using real-time structure break monitoring techniques we find evidence against monotonic response pattern, specifically three response structures of US stock market to the federal monetary policy actions based on a sample from 1989-2010. We re-estimate the market response in each of the three structures and find results stronger than previously documented especially in 2001-2008. We propose a “FedGap” variable which measures the deviation of Fed policy from the “Taylor Rule” in explanation and find it to be significant with economic meaning. We conclude that market responses proportionally to the size of the FedGap and it thus serves as a new “macro-state” factor which can explain the dynamic response patterns of financial markets. We also examine the issue from the bond market, and find similar results.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers RP with number -2491.

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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvrp:-2491
Note: In : Economics Letters, 120(3), 442-446, 2013
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  1. David, DE LA CROIX & Davide, DOTTORI, 2007. "Easter Island’s Collapse : A Tale of a Population Race," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007005, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  2. Mariani, Fabio & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín & Raffin, Natacha, 2010. "Life expectancy and the environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 798-815, April.
  3. de la Croix, David & Gosseries, Axel, 2012. "The natalist bias of pollution control," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 271-287.
  4. PIERRET, Diane, 2013. "The systemic risk of energy markets," CORE Discussion Papers 2013018, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  5. Galor, Oded & Moav, Omer, 2001. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2727, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Shekhar Aiyar & Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Omer Moav, 2008. "Technological progress and regress in pre-industrial times," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 125-144, June.
  7. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521715348 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  9. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521887427 is not listed on IDEAS
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