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How should the allocation of resources adjust to the baby bust?

  • DE LA CROIX, David
  • MAHIEU, Géraldine
  • RILLAERS, Alexandra

We analyze the impact of a drop in fertility on the optimal allocation of resources in an overlapping generations economy where old workers care about leisure. We also characterize optimal dynamics and study the decentralization of the optimum by means of inter-generational transfers and/or public debt. We conclude that the policy recommendations of postponing retirement is fragile and depend on preferences and technologies. Also, even when the optimal adjustment of public debt goes into the expected direction in the long run, -i.e. public debt should decrease,- this may not be the case during the transition.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9779.2004.00183.x
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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers RP with number -1741.

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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvrp:-1741
Note: In : Journal of Public Economic Theory, 6(4), 607-636, 2004
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  1. Blanchet, Didier & Kessler, Denis, 1991. "Optimal Pension Funding with Demographic Instability and Endogenous Returns on Investment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 137-54, May.
  2. Boadway, R. & Marchand, M. & Pestieau, P., 1990. "Pay-as-you-go social security in a changing environment," CORE Discussion Papers 1990054, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
  4. Atkinson, A B & Sandmo, A, 1980. "Welfare Implications of the Taxation of Savings," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(359), pages 529-49, September.
  5. Hu, Sheng Cheng, 1979. "Social Security, the Supply of Labor, and Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 274-83, June.
  6. Bertrand Crettez & Patricia Le Maitre, 2002. "Optimal age of retirement and population growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 737-755.
  7. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:1:p:7-44 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1996. "Simulating the Privatization of Social Security in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 5776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
  10. Deardorff, Alan V, 1976. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population: Comment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(2), pages 510-15, June.
  11. Peters, Wolfgang, 1991. "Public Pensions in Transition: An Optimal Policy Path," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 155-75, May.
  12. Meijdam, Lex & Verbon, Harrie A A, 1997. "Aging and Public Pensions in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 29-42, January.
  13. Marchand, Maurice & Michel, Philippe & Pestieau, Pierre, 1996. "Intergenerational transfers in an endogenous growth model with fertility changes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 33-48, April.
  14. MICHEL, Philippe & PESTIEAU, Pierre, 1999. "Social security and early retirement in an overlapping-generations growth model," CORE Discussion Papers 1999051, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  15. Michel, Philippe, 1990. "Some Clarifications on the Transversality Condition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 705-23, May.
  16. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
  17. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October.
  18. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. HUANG, HE & IMROHOROG[caron]LU, SELAHATTIN & SARGENT, THOMAS J., 1997. "Two Computations To Fund Social Security," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 7-44, January.
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