Fear of Floating Needn't Imply Fixed Rates: Feasible Options for Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes
The criteria of the theory of optimum currency areas suggest that many (most?) countries are not good candidates for either of the poles of genuinely fixed exchange rates or freely floating exchange rates. Thus many countries should have an interest in intermediate exchange rate regimes. However, in a world of substantial capital mobility most forms of intermediate exchange rate regimes have proven to be highly crisis prone. The paper argues that the unholy trinity analysis doesn't imply that intermediate exchange rate regimes are inherently unstable, but rather that exchange rate and monetary policies need to be jointly determined. The difficulties of maintaining such consistency are as much political as economic since temporarily pegged or managed rates create a time inconsistency problem. Therefore policy officials need some institutional insulation from short sighted political pressures. A problem with most intermediate regimes is that they have focused on particular forms of limited exchange rate flexibility per se, rather than the weight that should be given to the exchange rate in setting monetary policy. It is argued that OCA theory provides the framework for determining the appropriate weights and limits on the amount of sterilized intervention to maintain the consistency between exchange rate and monetary policies necessary to avoid currency crises. The paper also considers a number of the issues involved in integrating their approach with the literature on open economy aspects of inflation targeting.
|Date of creation:||May 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 500 E. 9th Street, Claremont, CA 91711|
Phone: (909) 607-3041
Fax: (909) 621-8249
Web page: http://www.claremontmckenna.edu/rdschool/papers/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laurence Ball, 2000.
"Policy Rules and External Shocks,"
NBER Working Papers
7910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball, 2002. "Policy Rules and External Shocks," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 3, pages 047-064 Central Bank of Chile.
- William H. Branson & Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein, 1990. "International Policy Coordination and Exchange Rate Fluctuations," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bran90-1, September.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2001.
"Managed floating: Understanding the new international monetary order,"
W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers
30, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
- Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershaeuser, Timo, 2001. "Managed Floating: Understanding the New International Monetary Order," CEPR Discussion Papers 3064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000.
"Open-Economy Inflation Targeting,"
NBER Working Papers
6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Papers 638, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006.
"Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
- Dalia S Hakura & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 2001. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices; Does the Inflationary Environment Matter?," IMF Working Papers 01/194, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002.
"Fear of floating,"
14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Barry Eichengreen, 2006.
"Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?,"
in: Monetary Integration and Dollarization, chapter 8
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Barry Eichengreen, 2002. "Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?," Working Papers Series 36, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Willett, Thomas D & Wolf, Matthias, 1983. "The Vicious Circle Debate: Some Conceptual Distinctions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 231-48.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:clm:clmeco:2002-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.