Political Risk and Capital Flight
Capital flight often amounts to a substantial proportion of GDP when developing countries face crises. This paper presents a portfolio choice model that relates capital flight to rate of return differentials, risk aversion, and three types of risk: financial risk, political risk, and policy risk. Estimating the equilibrium capital flight equation for a panel of 47 developing countries over 16 years, we show that all three types of risk have a statistically significant impact on capital flight. Quantitatively, political risk is the most important factor causing capital flight. We also identify several political factors that reduce capital flight by signaling market-oriented reforms are imminent.
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- Clague, Christopher & Keefer, Philip & Knack, Stephen & Olson, Mancur, 1999. "Contract Intensive Money," MPRA Paper 25717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "Exchange Risk, Political Risk, and Macroeconomic Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 183-89, March.
- Michael P. Dooley & Peter Isard, 1978. "Capital controls, political risk and interest disparities," International Finance Discussion Papers 125, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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