The Falsification of Four Popular Hypotheses about International Financial Behavior during the Asian Crisis
Various claims have been made about the causes of the Asian crisis and its spread. Here, we use data on the behavior of capital flows during the crisis to test the strong forms of four such hypotheses, including the dominant role of portfolio investors and hedge funds in initiating and spreading the crisis; moral hazard; and, finally, the role of Japanese banks in spreading the trouble to countries in which they were the largest source of funds. All are falsified as monocausal explanations. For example, portfolio investments that could not have been subject to substantial moral hazard continued to flow into Asia until very shortly before the crisis. Likewise, contrary to common expectations banks were a much larger source of capital outflows during the crisis than were portfolio investors. While falsified in their strongest forms, several of these hypotheses in less strong form should play a role in a more nuanced analysis. It is time to move past simple single-factor approaches in order to produce a more complete, synthetic explanation of this episode.
|Date of creation:||May 2001|
|Date of revision:||Sep 2001|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 500 E. 9th Street, Claremont, CA 91711|
Phone: (909) 607-3041
Fax: (909) 621-8249
Web page: http://www.claremontmckenna.edu/rdschool/papers/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dong Lee & Bong-Chan Kho & Rene M. Stulz, 2000.
"U.S. Banks, Crises, and Bailouts: From Mexico to LTCM,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 28-31, May.
- Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "U.S. Banks, Crises, and Bailouts: From Mexico to LTCM," NBER Working Papers 7529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Spillovers Through Banking Centers; A Panel Data Analysis," IMF Working Papers 00/88, International Monetary Fund.
- Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ricardo Hausmann, 2000.
"Is FDI a Safer Form of Financing?,"
Research Department Publications
4201, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Michael P. Dooley, 1998.
"A model of crises in emerging markets,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
630, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sunil Sharma & Sushil Bikhchandani, 2000. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets; A Review," IMF Working Papers 00/48, International Monetary Fund.
- Steven Phillips & Timothy D. Lane, 2000. "Does IMF Financing Result in Moral Hazard?," IMF Working Papers 00/168, International Monetary Fund.
- Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995.
"Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 153-74, January.
- Takatoshi Ito, 1999.
"Capital Flows in Asia,"
Discussion Paper Series
a371, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Michael P. Dooley & Inseok Shin, 2000.
"Private Inflows when Crises are Anticipated: A Case Study of Korea,"
NBER Working Papers
7992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael P. Dooley & Inseok Shin, 1999. "Private inflows when crises are anticipated: a case study of Korea," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
- Anne Jansen & Donald J. Mathieson & Barry J. Eichengreen & Laura E. Kodres & Bankim Chadha & Sunil Sharma, 1998. "Hedge Funds and Financial Market Dynamics," IMF Occasional Papers 166, International Monetary Fund.
- Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000.
"On crises, contagion, and confusion,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
- Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000.
"The Russian Default and the Contagion to Brazil,"
IMF Working Papers
00/160, International Monetary Fund.
- Alberto Gabriele & Korkut Baratav & Ashok Parikh, 2000. "Instability and Volatility of Capital Flows to Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(8), pages 1031-1056, 08.
- repec:idb:wpaper:416 is not listed on IDEAS
- Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Contagion; Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August.
- Eric Van Wincoop & Kei-Mu Yi, 2000. "Asia crisis postmortem: where did the money go and did the United States benefit?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 51-70.
- Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Jeronimo Zettelmeyer & Isabel Schnabel, 2002. "Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending; A Test," IMF Working Papers 02/181, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:clm:clmeco:2001-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.