Is War a Zero-Sum Game? Evidence from the U.S. Civil War
A new daily data set of Confederate cotton bonds trading in Liverpool is analyzed in conjunction with Union Greenback prices to asses the impact of war news on Civil War asset prices. The empirical analysis indicates the presence of a cointegrating relationship between Union Greenback prices and cotton bond prices after controlling for innovations in the cotton and bond markets. The findings show that war emitted a common but asymmetric signal. War news was efficiently transmitted across the Atlantic Ocean via steamers and investors in London in New York reacted the same way to the events of the Civil War.
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