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Prevention and Dynamic Risk Adjustment

  • Karen Eggleston
  • Randall P. Ellis
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    Risk adjustment deters selection and helps to assure fair and efficient payments among health insurers or capitated provider groups. However, since conventional risk adjustment allocates funds among insurers or regions according to current population health status, it does not reward - indeed, it penalizes - provider preventive efforts that improve population health. This prevention penalty of risk adjustment will become increasingly salient as inter-related trends converge - aging societies, chronic disease epidemics, use of market-based incentives and wider adoption of conventional risk adjustment. We develop a theoretical model of selection and prevention demonstrating this problem with conventional risk adjustment and suggesting a simple alternative that restores incentives for optimal prevention. Dynamic risk adjustment combines conventional risk adjustment with pay-for-performance for prevention.

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    Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Calgary in its series Working Papers with number 2007-06.

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    Date of creation: 26 Oct 2007
    Date of revision: 26 Oct 2007
    Handle: RePEc:clg:wpaper:2007-06
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    1. Eggleston, Karen, 2005. "Multitasking and mixed systems for provider payment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 211-223, January.
    2. Glazer, Jacob & McGuire, Thomas G., 2006. "Optimal quality reporting in markets for health plans," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 295-310, March.
    3. Avi Dor, 2004. "Optimal Price Rules, Administered Prices and Suboptimal Prevention: Evidence from a Medicare Program," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 81-104, January.
    4. Shen, Yujing & Ellis, Randall P., 2002. "Cost-minimizing risk adjustment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 515-530, May.
    5. Selden, Thomas M, 1998. "Risk Adjustment for Health Insurance: Theory and Implications," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 167-79, November.
    6. Schokkaert, Erik & Van de Voorde, Carine, 2004. "Risk selection and the specification of the conventional risk adjustment formula," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1237-1259, November.
    7. Barros, Pedro Pita, 2003. "Cream-skimming, incentives for efficiency and payment system," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 419-443, May.
    8. Frank, Richard G. & Glazer, Jacob & McGuire, Thomas G., 2000. "Measuring adverse selection in managed health care," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 829-854, November.
    9. Byrne, Margaret M. & Thompson, Peter, 2001. "Screening and preventable illness," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1077-1088, November.
    10. Erik Schokkaert & Geert Dhaene & Carine Van De Voorde, 1998. "Risk adjustment and the trade-off between efficiency and risk selection: an application of the theory of fair compensation," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(5), pages 465-480.
    11. Chalkley, Martin & Malcomson, James M., 1998. "Contracting for health services when patient demand does not reflect quality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19, January.
    12. Altman, Daniel & Cutler, David M & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1998. "Adverse Selection and Adverse Retention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 122-26, May.
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