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Firm Survival, Performance, and the Exchange Rate

  • Jen Baggs
  • Loretta Fung

Large real exchange rate movements may affect the real eocnomy in a manner comparable to significant episodes of tariff changes. This paper conducts a firm level analysis of the impact of exchange rate movements on firm survival, sales and industry entry rates. Our empirical analysis exploits a detailed set of Canadian firm level data from 1986 to 1997 during which the Canadian dollar experienced an approximately 30% appreciation in the first six years and 30% depreciation in the later six years. These reciprocal movements in the Canadian dollar offer an excellent opportunity to investigate the consequences of lare exchange rate movements for domestic firms. We find that survival, sales and entry are negatively associated with appreciations in the Canadian dollar. The impact on survival is less pronounced for more productive firms. We find that over our sample period, the magnitude of the impact of exchange rate changes on firm survival, sales, and entry were considerably larger than the effect of CUSTA mandated tariff changes.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Calgary in its series Working Papers with number 2007-04.

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Date of creation: 26 Oct 2007
Date of revision: 26 Oct 2007
Handle: RePEc:clg:wpaper:2007-04
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  1. Eugene Beaulieu, 2000. "The Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and labour market adjustment in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 540-563, May.
  2. Bergin, Paul R. & Feenstra, Robert C., 2000. "Staggered price setting, translog preferences, and endogenous persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 657-680, June.
  3. Pavcnik, Nina, 2002. "Trade Liberalization, Exit, and Productivity Improvement: Evidence from Chilean Plants," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 245-76, January.
  4. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra, . "Pricing To Market, Staggered Contracts, And Real Exchange Rate Persistence," Department of Economics 99-01, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  5. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Melitz, Marc, 2008. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," Scholarly Articles 3229096, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Goldberg, L.S. & Campa, J., 1993. "Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange-Rate and External Exposure," Working Papers 93-18, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  7. Baggs, Jennifer & Brander, James A., 2005. "Trade Liberalization, Profitability, and Financial Leverage," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2005256e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
  8. Forbes, Kristin J., 2002. "Cheap labor meets costly capital: the impact of devaluations on commodity firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 335-365, December.
  9. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
  10. Jen Baggs, 2005. "Firm survival and exit in response to trade liberalization," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1364-1383, November.
  11. Feenstra, Robert C., 1989. "Symmetric pass-through of tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition: An empirical test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 25-45, August.
  12. Loretta Fung, 2008. "Large real exchange rate movements, firm dynamics, and productivity growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(2), pages 391-424, May.
  13. John Baldwin & Wulong Gu, 2003. "Export-market participation and productivity performance in Canadian manufacturing," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 634-657, August.
  14. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 1999. "Rationalization effects of tariff reductions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 295-320, April.
  15. Yan, Beiling, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity: A Canada/U.S. Exploration," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2002002e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
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