Modeling Multivariate Extreme Events Using Self-Exciting Point Processes
We propose a new model that can capture the typical features of multivariate extreme events observed in financial time series, namely clustering behavior in magnitudes and arrival times of multivariate extreme events, and time-varying dependence. The model is developed in the framework of the peaks-over-threshold approach in extreme value theory and relies on a Poisson process with self-exciting intensity. We discuss the properties of the model, treat its estimation, deal with testing goodness-of-fit, and develop a simulation algorithm. The model is applied to return data of two stock markets and four major European banks.
|Date of creation:||27 Jun 2012|
|Date of revision:||20 Jun 2013|
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- Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Cacho-Diaz, Julio & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2015.
"Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 585-606.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Julio Cacho-Diaz & Roger J.A. Laeven, 2010. "Modeling Financial Contagion Using Mutually Exciting Jump Processes," NBER Working Papers 15850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bowsher, Clive G., 2007. "Modelling security market events in continuous time: Intensity based, multivariate point process models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 876-912, December.
- Clive Bowsher, 2002. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2002-W22, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Clive G. Bowsher, 2005. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity Based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2005-W26, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Clive G. Bowsher, 2003. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity Based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2003-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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