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Modeling Multivariate Extreme Events Using Self-Exciting Point Processes

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver Grothe

    (Department of Economic and Social Statistics, University of Cologne)

  • Volodymyr Korniichuk

    (CGS, University of Cologne)

  • Hans Manner

    (Department of Economic and Social Statistics, University of Cologne)

Abstract

We propose a new model that can capture the typical features of multivariate extreme events observed in financial time series, namely clustering behavior in magnitudes and arrival times of multivariate extreme events, and time-varying dependence. The model is developed in the framework of the peaks-over-threshold approach in extreme value theory and relies on a Poisson process with self-exciting intensity. We discuss the properties of the model, treat its estimation, deal with testing goodness-of-fit, and develop a simulation algorithm. The model is applied to return data of two stock markets and four major European banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Grothe & Volodymyr Korniichuk & Hans Manner, 2012. "Modeling Multivariate Extreme Events Using Self-Exciting Point Processes," Cologne Graduate School Working Paper Series 03-06, Cologne Graduate School in Management, Economics and Social Sciences, revised 20 Jun 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgr:cgsser:03-06
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bowsher, Clive G., 2007. "Modelling security market events in continuous time: Intensity based, multivariate point process models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 876-912, December.
    2. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Cacho-Diaz, Julio & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2015. "Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 585-606.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time Series; Peaks Over Threshold; Hawkes Processes; Extreme Value Theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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