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Inference about Realized Volatility using Infill Subsampling

  • Ilze Kalnina
  • Oliver Linton

We investigate the use of subsampling for conducting inference about the quadratic variation of a discretely observed diffusion process under an infill asymptotic scheme. We show that the usual subsampling method of Politis and Romano (1994) is inconsistent when applied to our inference question. Recently, a type of subsampling has been used to do an additive bias correction to obtain a consistent estimator of the quadratic variation of a diffusion process subject to measurement error, Zhang, Mykland, and Ait-Sahalia (2005). This subsampling scheme is also inconsistent when applied to the inference question above. This is due to a high correlation between estimators on different subsamples. We discuss an alternative approach that does not have this correlation problem; however, it has a vanishing bias only under smoothness assumptions on the volatility path. Finally, we propose a subsampling scheme that delivers consistent inference without any smoothness assumptions on the volatility path. This is a general method and can be potentially applied to conduct inference for quadratic variation in the presence of jumps and/or microstructure noise by subsampling appropriate consistent estimators.

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Paper provided by Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE in its series STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series with number /2007/523.

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Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cep:stiecm:/2007/523
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  1. Neil Shephard & Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2006. "Designing realised kernels to measure the ex-post variation of equity prices in the presence of noise," Economics Series Working Papers 2006-W03, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. S. Baranzoni & P. Bianchi & L. Lambertini, 2000. "Market Structure," Working Papers 368, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  3. Neil Shephard & Ole Barndorff-Nielsen, 2003. "Econometrics of testing for jumps in financial economics using bipower variation," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-01, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Walter Distaso & Basel Awartani & Valentina Corradi, 2004. "Testing and Modelling Market Microstructure Effects with an Application to the Dow Jones Industrial Average," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 273, Econometric Society.
  5. Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Aït-Sahalia, Yacine, 2011. "Edgeworth expansions for realized volatility and related estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 190-203, January.
  6. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Per A. Mykland & Lan Zhang, 2005. "Ultra High Frequency Volatility Estimation with Dependent Microstructure Noise," NBER Working Papers 11380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Lan Zhang & Per A. Mykland & Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2003. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility with Noisy High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 10111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ilze Kalnina & Oliver Linton, 2006. "Estimating Quadratic VariationConsistently in thePresence of Correlated MeasurementError," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2006/509, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  9. Almut Elisabeth Dorothea Veraart, 2007. "Feasible inference for realised variance in the presence of jumps," Economics Series Working Papers 2007-FE-02, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Oliver Linton, 2000. "Efficient estimation of generalized additive nonparametric regression models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 314, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  11. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2000. "Econometric analysis of realised volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Economics Papers 2001-W4, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 05 Jul 2001.
  12. Zhou, Bin, 1996. "High-Frequency Data and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-52, January.
  13. Xin Huang & George Tauchen, 2005. "The Relative Contribution of Jumps to Total Price Variance," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 456-499.
  14. Basel Awartani & Valentina Corradi, 2004. "Testing and Modelling Market Microstructure Effects with an Application to the Dow Jones Industrial Average," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 487, Econometric Society.
  15. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April.
  16. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 2005. "How Often to Sample a Continuous-Time Process in the Presence of Market Microstructure Noise," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 351-416.
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