Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search
The effectiveness of one aspect of the London School of Economics (LSE) approach to econometrics is assessed in a simulation study. The paper uses a data set and nine models analogous to those in Lovell''s (1983) study of data mining. A simplified general-to-specific algorithm is tested in a simulation framework. While the study documents some of the pitfalls of the general-to-specific approach, it is, on the whole, supportive of the effectiveness of the LSE methodology as applied to stationary data with relatively simple dynamics. The general-to-specific methodology clearly dominates the alternative search methodologies investigated by Lovell.
|Date of creation:||09 Jan 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (530) 752-0741
Fax: (530) 752-9382
Web page: http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Methodology: Alchemy or Science: Review Article," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1398-1413, September.
- Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham Ernest, 1985. "Procrustean Econometrics: Stretching and Squeezing Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 68, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gregory D. Hess & Christopher S. Jones & Richard D. Porter, 1994.
"The predictive failure of the Baba, Hendry and Starr model of the demand for M1 in the United States,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
94-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gregory D. Hess & Christopher S. Jones & Richard D. Porter, 1994. "The predictive failure of the Baba, Hendry and Starr model of the demand for M1 in the United States," Research Working Paper 94-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Anindya Banerjee, 1994. "Dynamic Specification and Testing for Unit Roots and Co-Integration," Working Papers 914, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-74, Summer.
- McAleer, Michael & Pagan, Adrian R & Volker, Paul A, 1985.
"What Will Take the Con out of Econometrics?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 293-307, June.
- Mayer, Thomas, 1980. "Economics as a Hard Science: Realistic Goal or Wishful Thinking?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 165-78, April.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hoover, Kevin D, 1988. "On the Pitfalls of Untested Common-Factor Restrictions: The Case of the Inverted Fisher Hypothesis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(2), pages 125-38, May.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1987. " Three Econometric Methodologies: A Critical Appraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 3-24.
- Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988.
"Reflections on Econometric Methodology,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
893, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Gilbert, Christopher L, 1986. "Professor Hendry's Econometric Methodology," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 283-307, August.
- Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982.
"On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
- HENRY, David F. & RICHARD, Jean-François, . "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP -502, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Neil R. Ericsson & Julia Campos & Hong-Anh Tran, 1991. "PC-give and David Hendry's econometric methodology," International Finance Discussion Papers 406, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lovell, Michael C, 1983. "Data Mining," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-12, February.
- Hendry, D.F. & Richard, J.-F., 1987. "Recent developments in the theory of encompassing," CORE Discussion Papers 1987022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Li, Hongyi & Maddala, G. S., 1997.
"Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 297-318, October.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to demonstrate bootstrapping with cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00021, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Mizon, Grayham E & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1986. "The Encompassing Principle and Its Application to Testing Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 657-78, May.
- Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:97-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Scott Dyer)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.