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Does Exchange Rate Variability Matter for Welfare? A Quantitative Investigation of Stabilization Policies

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  • Paul Bergin
  • Hyung-Cheol Shin
  • Ivan Tchakarov

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

Abstract

This paper evaluates quantitatively the potential welfare gains from monetary policy and fixed exchange rate rules in a two-country sticky-price model. The first finding is that the gains from stabilization tend to be small in the types of economic environments emphasized in recent theoretical literature. The analysis goes on to identify two types of economies in which the welfare implications of risk are larger: where agents exhibit habits, and where international asset markets exhibit asymmetry in the form of “original sin.” In the habits case, monetary policy aimed solely at inflation stabilization is optimal. But in the original sin case there are potentially large welfare gains from also eliminating exchange rate volatility.

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Paper provided by University of California, Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 512.

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Length: 28
Date of creation: 30 Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:05-12
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Keywords: exchange rate risk; second order approximation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2001. "Welfare And Macroeconomic Interdependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 421-445, May.
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  7. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects on welfare and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 989-1015, July.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "Do We Really Need a New International Monetary Compact?," NBER Working Papers 7864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky Price and Limited Participation Models of Money: A Comparison," NBER Working Papers 5804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Robert Feenstra & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Pricing To Market, Staggered Contracts, And Real Exchange Rate Persistence," Working Papers 991, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  15. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2003. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 765-783, October.
  16. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May.
  17. Henry Kim & Jinill Kim & Ernst Schaumburg & Christopher A. Sims, 2005. "Calculating and Using Second Order Accurate Solutions of Discrete Time Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0505, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  18. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  19. Sutherland, Alan, 2005. "Incomplete pass-through and the welfare effects of exchange rate variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 375-399, March.
  20. Jinill Kim & Sunghyun Kim & Ernst Schaumburg & Christopher A. Sims, 2003. "Calculating and Using Second Order Accurate Solutions of Discrete Time," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000284, UCLA Department of Economics.
  21. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December.
  22. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
  23. Jordi Gal� & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
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Cited by:

  1. Ioana Moldovan, 2007. "Countercyclical Taxes in a Monopolistically Competitive Environment," Working Papers 2007_42, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  2. Horváth, Roman & Maršál, Aleš, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates in a small open economy DSGE model with Markov switching," FinMaP-Working Papers 22, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
  3. Kollmann, Robert & Kim, Jinill & Kim, Sunghyun H., 2011. "Solving the multi-country Real Business Cycle model using a perturbation method," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 203-206, February.
  4. Ioana Moldovan, 2008. "Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and Cyclical Factor Utilization," Working Papers 2008_15, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  5. Carlos Garcia, 2012. "Why Does Monetary Policy Respond to the Real Exchange Rate in Small Open Economies? A Bayesian Perspective," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv287, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  6. Wang, Jian, 2010. "Home bias, exchange rate disconnect, and optimal exchange rate policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 55-78, February.
  7. Teo, Wing Leong, 2009. "Can exchange rate rules be better than interest rate rules?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 301-311, August.
  8. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov, 2012. "Do real balance effects invalidate the Taylor principle in closed and open economies?," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2012-10, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
  9. Aysun, Uluc, 2008. "Automatic stabilizer feature of fixed exchange rate regimes," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 302-328, December.
  10. Bianca De Paoli, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," CEP Discussion Papers dp0639, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  11. Ozge Senay, 2008. "Interest Rate Rules And Welfare In Open Economies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(3), pages 300-329, 07.
  12. Danny Leung, 2008. "Markups in Canada: Have They Changed and Why?," Working Papers 08-8, Bank of Canada.
  13. Tseng, Hui-Kuan, 2010. "Incomplete Pass-through and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Simulation Approach - Pass-through incompleto e volatilità del cambio: un approccio simulato," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 63(1), pages 121-135.
  14. Luis Catão & Roberto Chang, 2013. "World Food Prices, the Terms of Trade-Real Exchange Rate Nexus, and Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 13/114, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2014. "Why does monetary policy respond to the real exchange rate in small open economies? A Bayesian perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 789-825, May.
  16. Garcia, Carlos J. & Restrepo, Jorge E. & Tanner, Evan, 2011. "Fiscal rules in a volatile world: A welfare-based approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 649-676, July.
  17. Enzo Cassino & David Oxley, 2013. "How Does the Exchange Rate Affect the Real Economy? A Literature Survey," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/26, New Zealand Treasury.
  18. Tronzano, Marco, 2009. "Assessing the Volatility of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Markets: Further Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 103-131.

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