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Time-Varying Uncertainty and the Credit Channel

  • Kevin Salyer
  • Gabriel S. Lee

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

We extend the Carlstrom and Fuerst (1997) agency cost model of business cycles by including time varying uncertainty in the technology shocks that affect capital production. We first demonstrate that standard linearization methods can be used to solve the model yet second moment effects still influence equilibrium characteristics. The effects of the persistence of uncertainty are then analyzed. Our primary findings fall into four categories. First, it is demonstrated that uncertainty affects the level of the steady-state of the economy so that welfare analyses of uncertainty that focus entirely on the variability of output(or consumption) will understate the true costs of uncertainty. A second key result is that time varying uncertainty results in countercyclical bankruptcy rates - a finding which is consistent with the data and opposite the result in Carlstrom and Fuerst. Third, we show that persistence of uncertainty affects both quantitatively and qualitatively the behavior of the economy. Finally, we demonstrate that the magnitude of changes in uncertainty affecting the economy could be quite large; the implication

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Paper provided by University of California, Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 29.

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Length: 36
Date of creation: 22 Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:02-9
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  1. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Optimal Inflation Stabilization in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 410, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 7313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 1994. "Financial Intermediation and Aggregate Fluctuations: A Quantative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  5. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1996. "Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Working Paper 9602, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  6. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1995. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9510, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  7. Alderson, Michael J. & Betker, Brian L., 1995. "Liquidation costs and capital structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 45-69, September.
  8. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," NBER Technical Working Papers 0282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
  10. Collard, Fabrice & Juillard, Michel, 2001. "A Higher-Order Taylor Expansion Approach to Simulation of Stochastic Forward-Looking Models with an Application to a Nonlinear Phillips Curve Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 17(2-3), pages 125-39, June.
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