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The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty

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  • Kevin Salyer
  • Oscar Jorda

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

Abstract

This paper shows that greater uncertainty about monetary policy can lead to a decline in nominal interest rates. In the context of a limited participation model, monetary policy uncertainty is modeled as a mean-preserving spread in the distribution for the money growth process. This increase in uncertainty lowers the yield on short-term maturity bonds because the household sector responds by increasing liquidity in the banking sector. Long-term maturity bonds also have lower yields but this decrease is a result of the effect that greater uncertainty has on the nominal intertemporal rate of substitution - which is a convex function of money growth. These predictions are broadly supported by the data: the conditional variance of monetary policy shocks identified from a conventional monetary VAR negatively affects the yields of federal funds, and the three and six-month treasury bills.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Salyer & Oscar Jorda, 2003. "The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 16, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:01-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dotsey, Michael & Sarte, Pierre Daniel, 2000. "Inflation uncertainty and growth in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 631-655, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:93:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Harm Bandholz & Jorg Clostermann & Franz Seitz, 2009. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 539-550.
    3. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
    4. Dudley Cooke, 2016. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Endogenous Export Participation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 72-88, July.
    5. De Paoli, Bianca & Scott, Alasdair & Weeken, Olaf, 2010. "Asset pricing implications of a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 2056-2073.
    6. Scharler, Johann, 2008. "Bank lending and the stock market's response to monetary policy shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 425-435.
    7. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    8. Uluc Aysun, 2006. "Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Market Countries," Working papers 2006-28, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    9. Oscar Jorda, 2003. "Model-Free Impulse Responses," Working Papers 38, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    10. Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, EconWPA.
    11. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2008. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance in the European Union and Implications for the objectives of Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper Series 2008_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jan 2008.
    12. Timothy Cogley, 2005. "Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 420-451, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    limited participation; term structure; time-varying uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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