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European Business Cycles: New Indices and Analysis of their Synchronicity

his article presents a new type of business-cycle index that allowsM for cycle-to-cycle comparisons of the depth of recessions within a country,M cross-country comparisons of business-cycle correlation andM simple aggregation to arrive at a measure of a European business cycle.M The paper examines probit-type specifications of binary recession/expansionM variables in a Gibbs-sampling framework, wherein it is possible to incorporateM time-series features to the model, such as serial correlation,M heteroscedasticity and regime switching. The data-augmentation impliedM by Gibbs sampling generates posterior distributions for a latent coincidentM business-cycle index and extracts information from indicator variables,M such as the slope of the yield curve.M Sub-sample correlations between an aggregated `Europe'' index andM the national business-cycle indices from France, Germany, ItalyM are consistent with the claimM that the European economies are becoming more harmonizedM over time, but there is no guarantee that this patternM will hold in the future.

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Paper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie B with number 448.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: Feb 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bon:bonsfb:448
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Fax: +49 228 73 6884
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  1. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
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  3. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1994. "Stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 from a real business cycles perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 235-269, February.
  4. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
  5. Henri Bernard & Stefan Gerlach, 1996. "Does the term structure predict recessions? The international evidence," BIS Working Papers 37, Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Dueker, Michael, 1999. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Qualitative Response Models of Time Series: A Gibbs-Sampling Approach to the Bank Prime Rate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 466-72, October.
  7. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  8. Eichengreen, Barry & Watson, Mark W & Grossman, Richard S, 1985. "Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 725-45, September.
  9. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
  10. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
  11. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1999. "Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 120-32, January.
  12. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  13. Andrew J. Filardo, 1993. "Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics," Research Working Paper 93-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  14. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
  15. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
  16. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
  17. Michael J. Dueker, 1997. "Strengthening the case for the yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 41-51.
  18. Andrew Dickerson & Heather Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 1998. "Business Cycle Correspondence in the European Union," Empirica, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 49-75, January.
  19. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1997. "National Policies and Local Economies: Europe and the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Laura Piscitelli, 1999. "EMU in Reality: The Effect of a Common Monetary Policy on Economies with Different Transmission Mechanisms," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 337-358, December.
  21. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1998. "Consistent covariance matrix estimation in probit models with autocorrelated errors," Staff Reports 39, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  22. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 1997. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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