Building a Consistent Pricing Model from Observed Option Prices
This paper constructs a model for the evolution of a risky security that is consistent with a set of observed call option prices. It explicitly treats the fact that only a discrete data set can be observed in practice. The framework is general and allows for state dependent volatility and jumps. The theoretical properties are studied. An easy procedure to check for arbitrage opportunities in market data is proved and then used to ensure the feasibility of our approach. The implementation is discussed: testing on market data reveals a U-shaped form for the "local volatility" depending on the state and, surprisingly, a large probability for strong price movements.
|Date of creation:||Dec 1998|
|Date of revision:|
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- Buchen, Peter W. & Kelly, Michael, 1996. "The Maximum Entropy Distribution of an Asset Inferred from Option Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 143-159, March.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997.
" Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-90, June.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1994. "Assessing specification errors in stochastic discount factor models," Staff Report 167, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1994. "Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
- Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December.
- Luttmer, Erzo G J, 1996. "Asset Pricing in Economies with Frictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1439-67, November.
- Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
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