Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule
In the evaluation of experiments often the problem arises how to compare the predictive success of competing probabilistic theories. The quadratic soring rule can be used for this purpose. Originally this rule has been proposed as an incentive compatible elicitation method for probabilistic expert judgements. It is shown that up to a positive linear transformation, the quadratic scoring rule is characterized by five desirable properties.
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|Date of creation:||Oct 1996|
|Date of revision:|
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References listed on IDEAS
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- James E. Matheson & Robert L. Winkler, 1976. "Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1087-1096, June.
- Selten, Reinhard, 1991.
"Properties of a measure of predictive success,"
Mathematical Social Sciences,
Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 153-167, April.
- Daniel Friedman, 1983. "Effective Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(4), pages 447-454, April.
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