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Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule

  • Selten, Reinhard

In the evaluation of experiments often the problem arises how to compare the predictive success of competing probabilistic theories. The quadratic soring rule can be used for this purpose. Originally this rule has been proposed as an incentive compatible elicitation method for probabilistic expert judgements. It is shown that up to a positive linear transformation, the quadratic scoring rule is characterized by five desirable properties.

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Paper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie B with number 390.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: Oct 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bon:bonsfb:390
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Fax: +49 228 73 6884
Web page: http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de

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  1. Daniel Friedman, 1983. "Effective Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(4), pages 447-454, April.
  2. Selten, Reinhard, 1991. "Properties of a measure of predictive success," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 153-167, April.
  3. James E. Matheson & Robert L. Winkler, 1976. "Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1087-1096, June.
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