The Likelihood of European Monetary Union
Using information contained in forward interest rates, this paper attempts to assess the probability that European Monetary Union (EMU) occurs and that a particular country participates. It is shown that since the Madrid "summit" the public has become increasingly optimistic about the realization of EMU. Furthermore, Germany, the Netherlands, France and Belgium are found to be the most likely candidates for the single currency project.
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|Date of creation:||Jul 1996|
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