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German Unification and the EMS: A Non-Parametric Approach to the Asymmetry Question

  • Axel Cron, Jens Weidmann
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    This paper attempts to analyze the impact of German unification on the position that Germany holds within the European Monetary System (EMS), i.\ e.\ on the asymmetry in the EMS. Applying kernel estimation and bootstrap methods we can corroborate the result of previous studies that Germany's position within the EMS was not weakened by German unification when speculative periods before and after German unification are compared. Moreover, our data exhibit significant non-linearities pointing to threshold cointegration or regime switching processes.

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    Paper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie B with number 353.

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    Date of creation: Jan 1996
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bon:bonsfb:353
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany
    Fax: +49 228 73 6884
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    1. Andrews, Donald W.K., 1995. "Nonparametric Kernel Estimation for Semiparametric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 560-586, June.
    2. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
    3. Edward H. Gardner & William R. M. Perraudin, 1993. "Asymmetry in the ERM: A Case Study of French and German Interest Rates Before and After German Unification," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 427-450, June.
    4. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-87, February.
    5. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:106:y:1991:i:3:p:669-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bertola, G. & Svensson, L.E., 1990. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," Papers 481, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    7. Bierens, H.J., 1986. "Model-free asymptotically best forecasting of stationary economic time series," Serie Research Memoranda 0032, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    8. Hagen, Jurgen von & Fratianni, Michele, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS: evidence from interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 358-375, December.
    9. Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1989. "The European Monetary Union: An Agnostic Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Karfakis, C. J. & Moschos, D.M., 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages Within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 144, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    11. Henry, Jerome & Jens Weidmann, 1994. "Asymmetry in the EMS revisited: Evidence from the causality analysis of daily Eurorates," Discussion Paper Serie B 280, University of Bonn, Germany.
    12. De Grauwe, Paul, 1989. "Is the European Monetary System a DM-Zone?," CEPR Discussion Papers 297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Kirchgassner, Gebhard & Wolters, Jurgen, 1993. "Does the DM Dominate the Euro Market? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 773-78, November.
    14. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1992. "German dominance in the EMS:The empirical evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 127-128, February.
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