Whom will you choose? - Collaborator Selection and Selector’s Self-Prediction
Our experiment investigates managers’ self-predictions of their subsequent performance and, based upon, their choice of a collaborator. Our results show that managers’ self-predictions are not biased anymore after they are informed about the performance of a reference group. In spite of this, most managers do not rationally choose a collaborator given their beliefs. In a second treatment, superiors (who are assumed to be at a higher hierarchy level than the managers) obtain various information, e.g. about managers’ self-predictions, and have to predict the managers’ performances. Our data show that superiors adapt their predictions into the direction of the managers’ self- predictions, although not completely. Particularly, superiors think that their managers’ self-predictions are biased if they are lower than the average performance of the reference group. Based upon their predictions, superiors have to select a collaborator for their managers. We find that superiors’ collaborator choices do not significantly differ from the managers’ choices. This proves due to excellent information processing by both, managers and superiors, which on the whole leads to very similar predictions of managers’ subsequent performance.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany|
Fax: +49 228 73 6884
Web page: http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Buehler, Roger & Griffin, Dale, 2003. "Planning, personality, and prediction: The role of future focus in optimistic time predictions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 92(1-2), pages 80-90.
- Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, "undated".
"Learning To Be Overconfident,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, "undated". "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Cesarini, David & Sandewall, Orjan & Johannesson, Magnus, 2006.
"Confidence interval estimation tasks and the economics of overconfidence,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 453-470, November.
- Cesarini, David & Sandewall, Örjan & Johannesson, Magnus, 2003. "Confidence Interval Estimation Tasks and the Economics of Overconfidence," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 535, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Amihai Glazer & Bjorn Segendorff, 2005.
Economics of Governance,
Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 125-137, 07.
- Glazer, Amihai & Segendorff, Björn, 2001. "Credit Claiming," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0458, Stockholm School of Economics.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1988.
"The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
2715, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1991. "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(1), pages 1-19, January.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann,, "undated". "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _123, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1991. "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725470, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Guido Friebel & Michael Raith, 2004. "Abuse of Authority and Hierarchical Communication," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(2), pages 224-244, Summer.
- Greiner, Ben, 2004. "An Online Recruitment System for Economic Experiments," MPRA Paper 13513, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sharp, Glen L. & Cutler, Brian L. & Penrod, Steven D., 1988. "Performance feedback improves the resolution of confidence judgments," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 271-283, December.
- Segendorff, Björn, 2000. "A Signalling Theory of Scapegoats," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 406, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Fellner, Gerlinde & Guth, Werner & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2004.
"Illusion of expertise in portfolio decisions: an experimental approach,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 355-376, November.
- Gerlinde Fellner & Werner Güth & Boris Maciejovsky, 2001. "Illusion of Expertise in Portfolio Decisions - An Experimental Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 621, CESifo Group Munich.
- Gerlinde Fellner & Werner Güth & Boris Maciejovsky, 2001. "Illusion of Expertise in Portfolio Decisions - An Experimental Approach -," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2001-02, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
- Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
- Gilat Levy, 2004.
"Anti-herding and strategic consultation,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
541, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Sandra Ludwig & Julia Nafziger, 2007. "Do You Know That I Am Biased? An Experiment," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse11_2007, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bon:bonedp:bgse12_2008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (BGSE Office)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.