Merging of Opinions under Uncertainty
We consider long-run behavior of agents assessing risk in terms of dynamic convex risk measures or, equivalently, utility in terms of dynamic variational preferences in an uncertain setting. By virtue of a robust representation, we show that all uncertainty is revealed in the limit and agents behave as expected utility maximizer under the true underlying distribution regardless of their initial risk anticipation. In particular, risk assessments of distinct agents converge. This result is a generalization of the fundamental Blackwell-Dubins Theorem, cp. [Blackwell & Dubins, 62], to convex risk. We furthermore show the result to hold in a non -time-consistent environment.
|Date of creation:||May 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany|
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