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In search of concepts : The effects of speculative demand on returns and volume

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  • Gwilym, Owain Ap
  • Wang, Qvigwei
  • Hasan, Iftekhar
  • Xie, Ru

Abstract

Using a novel proxy of investors' speculative demand constructed from online search interest in "concept stocks", we examine how speculative demand affects the returns and trading volume of Chinese stock indices. We find that returns and trading volume increase with the contemporaneous speculative demand. In addition, the high speculative demand causes lower near future returns, while recent high past returns cause the high speculative demand. Moreover, the speculative demand explains more variation in returns and trading volume of A shares (more populated by retail investors) than B shares (less populated by retail investors). Our findings support the attention theory of Barber and Odean (2008). Keywords: Investor Attention, Speculative Demand, Concept Stock, Market Returns, Trading Volume JEL: G02, G12, G14

Suggested Citation

  • Gwilym, Owain Ap & Wang, Qvigwei & Hasan, Iftekhar & Xie, Ru, 2013. "In search of concepts : The effects of speculative demand on returns and volume," Research Discussion Papers 10/2013, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2013_010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "Investor attention, overconfidence and category learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 563-602, June.
    2. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharftstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1992. " Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1461-1484, September.
    3. Matthias Bank & Martin Larch & Georg Peter, 2011. "Google search volume and its influence on liquidity and returns of German stocks," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 25(3), pages 239-264, September.
    4. Kumar, Alok, 2007. "Do the diversification choices of individual investors influence stock returns?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 362-390, November.
    5. Hsieh, Jim & Walkling, Ralph A., 2006. "The history and performance of concept stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2433-2469, September.
    6. Jianping Mei & Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2009. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese A-B Share Premia," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 225-255, November.
    7. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean & Ning Zhu, 2009. "Do Retail Trades Move Markets?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 151-186, January.
    8. Ron Kaniel & Gideon Saar & Sheridan Titman, 2008. "Individual Investor Trading and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 273-310, February.
    9. Denis Gromb & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Limits of Arbitrage: The State of the Theory," NBER Working Papers 15821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    11. Boulatov, Alex & Hatch, Brian C. & Johnson, Shane A. & Lei, Adam Y.C., 2009. "Dealer attention, the speed of quote adjustment to information, and net dealer revenue," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1531-1542, August.
    12. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    13. Michael S. Drake & Darren T. Roulstone & Jacob R. Thornock, 2012. "Investor Information Demand: Evidence from Google Searches Around Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 1001-1040, September.
    14. Denis Gromb & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Limits of Arbitrage," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 251-275, December.
    15. Saqib Sharif & Hamish D. Anderson & Ben R. Marshall & Henk Berkman, 2014. "Against the tide: the commencement of short selling and margin trading in mainland China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 54(4), pages 1319-1355, December.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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