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Predicting rating changes for banks : How accurate are accounting and stock market indicators?

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  • Distinguin, Isabelle
  • Hasan, Iftekhar
  • Tarazi, Amine

Abstract

We aim to assess how accurately accounting and stock market indicators predict rating changes for Asian banks. We conduct a stepwise process to determine the optimal set of early indicators by tracing upgrades and downgrades from rating agencies, as well as other relevant factors. Our results indicate that both accounting and market indicators are useful leading indicators but are more effective in predicting upgrades than downgrades, especially for large banks. Moreover, early indicators are only significant in predicting rating changes for banks that are more focused on traditional banking activities such as deposit and loan activities. Finally, a higher reliance of banks on subordinated debt is associated with better accuracy of early indicators. Keywords: Bank Failure, Bank Risk, Ratings, Emerging Market JEL classification: G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Distinguin, Isabelle & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tarazi, Amine, 2012. "Predicting rating changes for banks : How accurate are accounting and stock market indicators?," Research Discussion Papers 15/2012, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2012_015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander M. Karminsky & Ella Khromova, 2016. "Modelling banks’ credit ratings of international agencies," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(3), pages 341-363, December.
    2. repec:eee:finsta:v:34:y:2018:i:c:p:61-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Guglielmo D’Amico, 2013. "A semi-Markov approach to the stock valuation problem," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 589-610, November.
    4. Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I., 2018. "To be bailed out or to be left to fail? A dynamic competing risks hazard analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 61-85.
    5. Volkova, Olga & Lvova, Irina, 2016. "Effect of financial indicators on international ratings of russian banks," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 177-195, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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