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Housing market and current account imbalances in the international economy

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  • Punzi, Maria Teresa

Abstract

This paper presents a two-sector, two-country model showing that inflation in the housing market, a low personal savings rate, and a construction investment boom can contribute to a large current account de cit. In the model, demand by a group of households in the domestic country is constrained by the availability of collateral. This implies more procyclical debt capacity because constrained households can borrow against the increase in the value of their houses during an expansion. A higher degree of financial liberalization and development helps constrained households reach higher loan-to-value ratios, thus relaxing their borrowing constraints. The resulting higher net worth and lower need for savings imply a worsening current account.

Suggested Citation

  • Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2012. "Housing market and current account imbalances in the international economy," Research Discussion Papers 1/2012, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2012_001
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    Cited by:

    1. Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2014. "House prices, capital inflows and macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 337-355.
    2. Chen, Qiuyu & Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2021. "Housing prices and trade surpluses in China: An inter-temporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Tillmann, Peter, 2013. "Capital inflows and asset prices: Evidence from emerging Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 717-729.
    4. Punzi, Maria Teresa & Kauko, Karlo, 2015. "Testing the global banking glut hypothesis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 128-151.
    5. Kai Dong & Ching-Ter Chang & Shaonan Wang & Xiaoxi Liu, 2021. "The Dynamic Correlation among Financial Leverage, House Price, and Consumer Expenditure in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Eleni Iliopulos, 2008. "Collateral constraints, external imbalances and heterogeneous agents in a two-country world," Documents de recherche 08-12, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    7. Gete, Pedro, 2020. "Expectations and the housing boom and bust. An open economy view," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    8. Franjo, Luis, 2018. "International interest rates, the current account and housing markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 268-280.
    9. Bian, Timothy Yang & Gete, Pedro, 2015. "What drives housing dynamics in China? A sign restrictions VAR approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 96-112.
    10. Punzi, Maria Teresa & Chantapacdepong, Pornpinun, 2017. "Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in Asia and the Pacific," ADBI Working Papers 630, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    11. Marco Riguzzi & Philipp Wegmueller, 2017. "Economic Openness and Fiscal Multipliers," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-35, January.
    12. Pedro Gete, 2015. "Housing demands, savings gluts and current account dynamics," Globalization Institute Working Papers 221, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Anupam Nanda & Jia-Huey Yeh, 2016. "International Transmission Mechanisms and Contagion in Housing Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(7), pages 1005-1024, July.
    14. Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2020. "Financial intermediation, resource allocation, and macroeconomic interdependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 265-278.
    15. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2014. "Mehr Vertrauen in Marktprozesse. Jahresgutachten 2014/15," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201415.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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