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Government funds and demographic transition : alleviating ageing costs in a small open economy

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  • Kinnunen, Helvi

Abstract

This paper investigates public pension funding using a dynamic general equilibrium macroeconomic model (DSGE) that facilitates investigation of distortionary effects of fiscal and pension policy responses to ageing. The model is calibrated to the Finnish economy, which will encounter substantial ageing pressures in the near future. During the transition to an older population structure ageing costs can be substantially lowered by allowing public funds to smooth out the tax responses. Cutting down on pension prefunding at a time when the pace of ageing is at its peak reduces the necessary tax hikes and stimulates labour supply growth at the moment when the labour market is tightest. With smaller funding needs, ageing leads to a slower growth in labour costs, a better employment conditions and faster production growth. Keywords: ageing, general equilibrium, public finance, government funds JEL classification numbers: E13, H55, J11, J26

Suggested Citation

  • Kinnunen, Helvi, 2008. "Government funds and demographic transition : alleviating ageing costs in a small open economy," Research Discussion Papers 21/2008, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2008_021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Jaag & Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2010. "Pension reform, retirement, and life-cycle unemployment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(5), pages 556-585, October.
    2. Nickel, Christiane & Rother, Philipp & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2008. "Population ageing and public pension reforms in a small open economy," Working Paper Series 863, European Central Bank.
    3. Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 61-110, June.
    4. Aiyagari, S. Rao & McGrattan, Ellen R., 1998. "The optimum quantity of debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 447-469, October.
    5. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    6. Walter Fisher & Christian Keuschnigg, 2010. "Pension reform and labor market incentives," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 769-803, March.
    7. Martin Feldstein, 2005. "Rethinking Social Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 1-24, March.
    8. Kilponen, Juha & Kinnunen, Helvi & Ripatti, Antti, 2006. "Population ageing in a small open economy : some policy experiments with a tractable general equilibrium model," Research Discussion Papers 28/2006, Bank of Finland.
    9. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2000. "Fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models: principles and practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-193, April.
    10. Daniel Leigh & Etibar Jafarov, 2007. "Alternative Fiscal Rules for Norway," IMF Working Papers 07/241, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Richard Hemming, 1998. "Should Public Pensions be Funded?," IMF Working Papers 98/35, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Attanasio, Orazio & Kitao, Sagiri & Violante, Giovanni L., 2007. "Global demographic trends and social security reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 144-198, January.
    13. Valkonen, Tarmo, 2002. "Demographic Uncertainty and Taxes," Discussion Papers 816, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    14. Lans Bovenberg & Thijs Knaap, 2005. "Ageing, Funded Pensions and the Dutch Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1403, CESifo.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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