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Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Globalized Developing Economy : Growth, Accumulation and Distribution, Turkey 1969-1998

  • Erinç Yeldan

    ()

  • Kývýlcým Metin-Özcan

    ()

  • Ebru Voyvoda

    ()

Our purpose in this paper is to establish stylized facts of the Turkish macroeconomic adjustments using data from 1969 to date. We adopt a traditional a-priori definition of business cycles as cyclical co-movements of economic variables such as public, private and construction investments, trade balance, labor productivity, wages and fiscal accounts with the cyclical component of real GDP. We also incorporate in our analysis an investigation of the cyclical components of exchange rates, interest rates, price inflation and the monetary aggregates. Our quantitative findings reveal a robust and significant positive relationship between public and private investments and real GDP growth, suggesting the presence of ?crowding in? effects of public investment. Trend growth of manufacturing wages and average labor productivity display a loose association over the whole period, and the rapid gains in productivity in the post-1980 reform era are not observed to be materialized as gains in remuneration of wage labor. We also find a significant negative correlation of manufacturing wages with merchandise exports and the exchange rate; and document further evidence on the strong negative correlation between variations in consumer prices and production.

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Paper provided by Bilkent University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 995.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:bil:bilpap:995
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  1. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring.
  2. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  3. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
  4. King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.T., 1989. "Low Frequency Filtering And Real Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 205, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  5. Peter Brandner & Klaus Neusser, 1992. "Business cycles in open economies: Stylized facts for Austria and Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 67-87, March.
  6. Yeldan, A.E., 2000. "The Impact of Financial Liberalization and the Rise of Financial Rents on Income Inequality: The Case of Turkey," Research Paper 206, World Institute for Development Economics Research.
  7. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," NBER Working Papers 6948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991. "International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Staff Report 145, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
  10. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  11. Cochrane, John H, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-65, February.
  12. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521420563 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Timothy Cogley, 1997. "Evaluating non-structural measures of the business cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-21.
  14. Christina D. Romer, 1992. "Remeasuring Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 4150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Andrew C Harvey & Albert Jaeger, 1991. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and The Business Cycle (Now published in Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol.8 (1993), pp.231-247.)," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /1991/230, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  16. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  17. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 696-715, November.
  18. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  19. Blackburn, Keith & Ravn, Morten O, 1992. "Business Cycles in the United Kingdom: Facts and Fictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 383-401, November.
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