IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Population, Pensions, and Endogenous Economic Growth

  • Burkhard Heer

    ()

    (Free University of Bolzano-Bozen, School of Economics and Management,)

  • Andreas Irmen

    ()

    (University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics)

We study the effect of a declining labor force on the incentives to engage in labor-saving technical change and ask how this effect is influenced by institutional characteristics of the pension scheme. When labor is scarcer it becomes more expensive and innovation investments that increase labor productivity are more profitable. We incorporate this channel in a new dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous economic growth and heterogeneous overlapping generations. We calibrate the model for the US economy. First, we establish that the net effect of a decline in population growth on the growth rate of per-capita magnitudes is positive and quantitatively significant. Second, we find that the pension system matters both for the growth performance and for individual welfare. Third, we show that the assessment of pension reform proposals may be different in an endogenous growth framework as opposed to the standard framework with exogenous growth.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.uni-heidelberg.de/md/awi/forschung/dp479.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0479.

as
in new window

Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2008
Date of revision: Nov 2008
Handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0479
Contact details of provider: Postal: Grabengasse 14, D-69117 Heidelberg
Phone: +49-6221-54 2905
Fax: +49-6221-54 2914
Web page: http://www.awi.uni-heidelberg.de/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
  2. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 2005. "Human Capital and Technology Diffusion," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 935-966 Elsevier.
  3. Daron Acemoglu, 2000. "Labor- and Capital- Augmenting Technical Change," NBER Working Papers 7544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2003. "Long-run effects of unfunded social security with earnings-dependent benefits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 617-641, December.
  5. Hellwig, Martin & Irmen, Andreas, 2001. "Endogenous Technical Change in a Competitive Economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 1-39, November.
  6. Jones, C.I., 2000. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," Papers 99-29, United Nations World Employment Programme-.
  7. Ben R. Craig & William E. Jackson, III & James B. Thomson, 2004. "On SBA-guaranteed lending and economic growth," Working Paper 0403, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  8. Storesletten, Kjetil & Telmer, Christopher I. & Yaron, Amir, 2004. "Consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 609-633, April.
  9. Heer, Burkhard & Irmen, Andreas, 2014. "Population, pensions, and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 50-72.
  10. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Hansen, G D, 1993. "The Cyclical and Secular Behaviour of the Labour Input: Comparing Efficiency Units and Hours Worked," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 71-80, Jan.-Marc.
  12. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "Projected U.S. demographics and social security," Working Paper Series WP-98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  13. Boldrin, Michele & Montes, Ana, 2002. "The Intergenerational State: Education and Pensions," CEPR Discussion Papers 3275, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October.
  15. Irmen, Andreas, 2004. "Extensive and Intensive Growth in a Neoclassical Framework," CEPR Discussion Papers 4266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
  17. Echevarria, Cruz A. & Iza, Amaia, 2006. "Life expectancy, human capital, social security and growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(12), pages 2323-2349, December.
  18. Lambrecht, Stéphane & Michel, Philippe & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2001. "Public pensions and growth," Working Paper Series 0090, European Central Bank.
  19. Alexander Ludwig & Dirk Krüger, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," MEA discussion paper series 06103, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  20. Kemnitz, Alexander & Wigger, Berthold U., 2000. "Growth and social security: the role of human capital," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 673-683, November.
  21. Storesletten, Kjetil, 1998. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Seminar Papers 664, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  22. Alexander Ludwig & Thomas Schelkle & Edgar Vogel, 2012. "Demographic Change, Human Capital and Welfare," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 94-107, January.
  23. Roozbeh Hosseini & Lei (Nick) Guo & Frank Caliendo, 2013. "Social Security is NOT a Substitute for Annuities," 2013 Meeting Papers 680, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  24. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  25. Zhang, Jie, 1995. "Social security and endogenous growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 185-213, October.
  26. Heijdra, Ben J. & Romp, Ward E., 2009. "Human capital formation and macroeconomic performance in an ageing small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 725-744, March.
  27. Helen McEwen & Pia Orrenius & Mark Wynne, 2005. "Opting out of work: what's behind the decline in labor force participation?," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Nov, pages 1-8.
  28. Ben J. Heijdra & Ward E. Romp, 2007. "Retirement, Pensions, and Ageing," CESifo Working Paper Series 1974, CESifo Group Munich.
  29. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  30. Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "The Gauss-Seidel-quasi-Newton method: A hybrid algorithm for solving dynamic economic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1610-1632, May.
  31. Bester, Helmut & Petrakis, Emmanuel, 1998. "Wages and Productivity Growth in a Competitive Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 2031, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  32. Juan Carlos Conesa & Carlos Garriga, 2007. "Optimal fiscal policy in the design of Social Security reforms," Working Papers 2007-035, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  33. Paul M. Romer, 1987. "Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 163-210 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. HUANG, HE & IMROHOROG[caron]LU, SELAHATTIN & SARGENT, THOMAS J., 1997. "Two Computations To Fund Social Security," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 7-44, January.
  35. Luisa Fuster & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2004. "Elimination of Social Security in a Dynastic Framework," Macroeconomics 0402008, EconWPA.
  36. Huggett, Mark, 1996. "Wealth distribution in life-cycle economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 469-494, December.
  37. Sanchez-Losada, Fernando, 2000. "Growth effects of an unfunded social security system when there is altruism and human capital," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 95-99, October.
  38. Enrique G. Mendoza & Assaf Razin & Linda L. Tesar, 1994. "Effective Tax Rates in Macroeconomics: Cross-Country Estimates of Tax Rates on Factor Incomes and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 4864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 1995. "Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change," Demography, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 543-555, November.
  40. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  41. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
  42. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  43. Attanasio Orazio P. & Gianluca Violante, 1999. "Global Demographic Trends and Social Security Reform," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0479. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gabi Rauscher)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.