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Application of the Generalized Method of Moments for Estimating Continuous-Time Models of U.S. Short-Term Interest Rates


  • Balázs Cserna

    () (University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics)


We show by Monte Carlo simulations that the jackknife estimation of QUENOUILLE (1956) provides substantial bias reduction for the estimation of short-term interest rate models applied in CHAN ET AL. (1992) - hereafter CKLS (1992). We find that an alternative estimation based on NOWMAN (1997) does not sufficiently solve the problem of time aggregation. We provide empirical distributions for parameter tests depending on the elasticity of conditional variance. Using three-month U.S. Treasury bill yields and the Federal fund rates, we demonstrate that the estimation results can depend on both the sampling frequency and the proxy that is used for interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Balázs Cserna, 2008. "Application of the Generalized Method of Moments for Estimating Continuous-Time Models of U.S. Short-Term Interest Rates," Working Papers 0462, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0462

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Broze, Laurence & Scaillet, Olivier & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1995. "Testing for continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 199-223, September.
    2. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-1227, July.
    3. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    5. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    6. Nowman, K B, 1997. " Gaussian Estimation of Single-Factor Continuous Time Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1695-1706, September.
    7. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2005. "Jackknifing Bond Option Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 707-742.
    8. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Donald W. K. Andrews, 1997. "A Stopping Rule for the Computation of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 913-932, July.
    10. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1980. " An Analysis of Variable Rate Loan Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 389-403, May.
    11. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1980. "Analyzing Convertible Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 907-929, November.
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    More about this item


    Elasticity of conditional variance; generalized method of moments; jackknife estimation; stochastic differential equations; short-term interest rate.;

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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