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Costly Inflation Misperceptions

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas A. Eife

    () (University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics)

  • Stephan Meier

    () (UniCredit Group)

Abstract

One of the consequences of the euro changeover in 2002 was that for a period of several years people considerably overestimated actual inflation. The goal of this paper is to study whether misperceptions of this kind may have real effects, that is, whether they induce people to alter their behaviour. We also discuss the question how far the euro changeover and the ensuing discussion about price stability contributed to the recession that followed the changeover. Looking at the German restaurant sector, we find that people’s misperceptions can have significant negative effects. The contraction this sector experienced in the months after the changeover was too pronounced to be explained by normal business cycle movements. We provide a discussion about the causes of these misperceptions and how to avoid them in future changeovers.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas A. Eife & Stephan Meier, 2007. "Costly Inflation Misperceptions," Working Papers 0455, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0455
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    File URL: http://www.uni-heidelberg.de/md/awi/forschung/dp455.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas A. Eife & W. Timothy Coombs, 2006. "Coping with People’s Inflation Perceptions During a Currency Changeover," Working Papers 0435, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2006.
    2. Manfred Fluch & Helmut Stix, 2005. "Perceived Inflation in Austria – Extent, Explanations, Effects," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 22-47.
    3. Wunder, Christoph & Schwarze, Johannes & Krug, Gerhard & Herzog, Bodo, 2008. "Welfare effects of the euro cash changeover," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 571-586, September.
    4. Thomas A. Eife, 2006. "Price setting behaviour and price setting regulations at the euro changeover," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2006-06, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2006.
    5. Bettina Isengard & Thorsten Schneider, 2006. "The euro and its perception in the German population," Discussion Papers 011, Europa-Universität Flensburg, International Institute of Management.
    6. Vincenzo Cestari & Paolo Del Giovane & Clelia Rossi-Arnaud, 2007. "Memory for prices and the euro cash changeover: An analysis for cinema prices in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 619, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas A. Eife & W. Timothy Coombs, 2006. "Coping with People’s Inflation Perceptions During a Currency Changeover," Working Papers 0435, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2006.
    2. Lunn, Pete & Duffy, David, 2010. "The Euro Through the Looking-Glass: Perceived Inflation Following the 2002 Currency Changeover," Papers WP338, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro changeover; perceived inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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