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Linkages among commodity futures markets and dynamic welfare analysis

  • Rausser, Gordon C.

    ()

    (University of California, Berkeley. Dept of agricultural and resource economics)

  • Walraven, Nicholas A.

This study constructs dynamic welfare measures for a system of futures markets that express the allocative efficiency of a particular market as a function of its accuracy and speed of adjustment following a shock to the system. The system comprises futures prices for T-bills, exchange rates (German mark, British pound, Canadian dollar and yen), and agricultural commodities (corn, wheat, and cotton) for delivery in 1981 and 1982. The results suggest that, although agricultural, exchange, and financial markets allover-react to a disturbance, agricultural markets do so to a much greater degree. Owing to their much greater size, however, the welfare loss arising from the overshooting is likely to be much larger for interest rate and exchange markets.

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Paper provided by University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy in its series CUDARE Working Paper Series with number 572.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 1990
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:are:cudare:572
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  1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  2. Rausser, Gordon C., 1985. "Macroeconomics and U.S. agricultural policy," CUDARE Working Paper Series 385, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
  3. Holthausen, Duncan M, 1979. "Hedging and the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 989-95, December.
  4. Stein, Jerome L, 1981. "Speculative Price: Economic Welfare and the Idiot of Chance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(2), pages 223-32, May.
  5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  6. Rausser, Gordon C. & Carter, Colin, 1981. "Futures market efficiency in the soybean complex," CUDARE Working Paper Series 139R, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
  7. Rausser, Gordon C., 1985. "Macroeconomic environment for U.S. agricultural policy," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2561m38d, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  8. Rausser, Gordon C. & Chalfant, James A. & Stamoulis, Kostas G., 1985. "Instability in agricultural markets: the U.S. experience," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt5zp3w60h, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  9. ZELLNER, Arnold & PALM, Franz, . "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," CORE Discussion Papers RP 173, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  10. Gershon Feder & Richard E. Just & Andrew Schmitz, 1980. "Futures Markets and the Theory of the Firm under Price Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 94(2), pages 317-328.
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
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