The future trajectory of US CO2 emissions : the role of state vs. aggregate information
This paper provides comparisons of a variety of time series methods for short run forecasts of the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, for the United States, using a recently released state level data set from 1960-2001. We test the out-of-sample performance of univariate and multivariate forecasting models by aggregating state level forecasts versus forecasting the aggregate directly. We find evidence that forecasting the disaggregate series and accounting for spatial effects drastically improves forecasting performance under Root Mean Squared Forecast Error Loss. Based on the in-sample observations we attempt to explain the emergence of voluntary efforts by states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We find evidence that states with decreasing per capita emissions and a "greener" median voter are more likely to push towards voluntary cutbacks in emissions.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (510) 642-3345
Fax: (510) 643-8911
Web page: http://areweb.berkeley.edu/library/Main/CUDARE
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: University of California, Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics Library, 248 Giannini Hall #3310, Berkeley CA 94720-3310|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stengos, T. & Millimet, D.L. & List, J.A., 2002.
"The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Real Progress or Misspecified Models?,"
2002-13, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Daniel L. Millimet & John A. List & Thanasis Stengos, 2003. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Real Progress or Misspecified Models?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1038-1047, November.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Clive W.J. Granger, 2002.
"Aggregation of Space-Time Processes,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
582, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W.J., 2001. "Aggregationn of Space-Time Processes," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt77f76455, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Zellner, Arnold & Chen, Bin, 2001. "Bayesian Modeling Of Economies And Data Requirements," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(05), pages 673-700, November.
- Maximilian Auffhammer & Bernard Morzuch & John Stranlund, 2005. "Production of Chlorofluorocarbons in Anticipation of the Montreal Protocol," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 30(4), pages 377-391, 04.
- Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Thomas M. Selden, 1992.
"Stoking the Fires? Co2 Emissions and Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Selden, Thomas M., 1995. "Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 85-101, May.
- Murdoch, James C. & Sandler, Todd, 1997. "The voluntary provision of a pure public good: The case of reduced CFC emissions and the Montreal Protocol," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 331-349, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:are:cudare:1015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jeff Cole)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.