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Predicting Within Country Household Food Expenditure Variation Using International Cross-Section Estimates

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  • Verma, Monika
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Preckel, Paul V.

Abstract

There is a long and distinguished literature involving demand analysis using international cross-section data. Such models are widely used for predicting national per capita consumption. However, there is nothing in this literature testing the performance of estimated models in predicting demands across the income spectrum within a single country. This paper fills the gap. We estimate an AIDADS model using cross-section international per capita data, and find that it does well in predicting food demand across the income distribution within Bangladesh. This suggests that there may be considerable value in using international cross-section analysis to study poverty and distributional impacts of policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Verma, Monika & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V., 2011. "Predicting Within Country Household Food Expenditure Variation Using International Cross-Section Estimates," Working papers 283475, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:283475
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.283475
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas W. Hertel & Roman Keeney & Maros Ivanic & L. Alan Winters, 2015. "Why Isn't the Doha Development Agenda more Poverty Friendly?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 18, pages 375-391, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Cranfield, John & Preckel, Paul & Hertel, Thomas, 2006. "Poverty Analysis Using an International Cross-Country Demand System," GTAP Working Papers 2211, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. Clements, Kenneth W. & Qiang, Ye, 2003. "The Economics of Global Consumption Patterns," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(Supplemen), pages 1-17.
    4. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    5. Dowrick, Steve & Quiggin, John, 1994. "International Comparisons of Living Standards and Tastes: A Revealed-Preference Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 332-341, March.
    6. Kenneth W. Clements & Dongling Chen, 2010. "Affluence and Food: A Simple Way to Infer Incomes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(4), pages 909-926.
    7. Theil, Henri & Finke, Renate, 1984. "A time series analysis of a demand system based on cross-country coefficient estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(3-4), pages 245-250.
    8. Monika Verma & Thomas W. Hertel & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2011. "Are The Poverty Effects of Trade Policies Invisible?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 25(2), pages 190-211, May.
    9. James A. Levinsohn & Steven T. Berry & Jed Friedman, 2003. "Impacts of the Indonesian Economic Crisis.Price Changes and the Poor," NBER Chapters, in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 393-428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low‐income countries1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
    11. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
    12. J. A. L. Cranfield & James S. Eales & Thomas W. Hertel & Paul V. Preckel, 2003. "Model selection when estimating and predicting consumer demands using international, cross section data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 353-364, April.
    13. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • B40 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - General
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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