IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aer/rpaper/rp_162.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic and distributional consequences of energy supply shocks in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Adeola F. Adenikinju
  • Niyi Falobi

Abstract

In spite of its vast oil endowments, Nigeria continues to experience sporadic domestic oil supply shortages. These oil shortages manifest in regular queues at fuel stations that are often empty and in thriving parallel markets that sprout all over the country. The shortages have resulted in huge economic and non-economic costs to the economy. This study investigates the causes of the shortages and provides quantitative estimates of the economic costs to the Nigerian economy using a survey and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The findings from this study show very clearly that oil sector supply shocks are costly both directly and indirectly. Oil supply shocks result in lower real GDP, higher average prices and greater balance of payment deficits. Other macroeconomic variables such as private consumption, investment, government revenue and employment also decline. In addition, the distributional impact of the quantitative energy supply shocks is higher for poor households than rich households. We also find that the sectoral impacts are mixed, often depending on the oil intensity of the sector. Finally, our survey results show that many economic agents on the demand side are willing to pay higher prices if that will guarantee a stable oil supply. Few players in the market chain benefit from supply disruptions, while consumers and the poor bear the main burden of these shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Adeola F. Adenikinju & Niyi Falobi, 2006. "Macroeconomic and distributional consequences of energy supply shocks in Nigeria," Research Papers RP_162, African Economic Research Consortium.
  • Handle: RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_162
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aercafrica.org/documents/RP162.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ashraf, Nava & Karlan, Dean & Yin, Wesley, 2010. "Female Empowerment: Impact of a Commitment Savings Product in the Philippines," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 333-344, March.
    2. Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2010. "Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply Decisions to Estimate the Impacts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 433-464, January.
    3. Shawn Cole & Thomas Sampson & Bilal Zia, 2011. "Prices or Knowledge? What Drives Demand for Financial Services in Emerging Markets?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 1933-1967, December.
    4. Robin Burgess & Rohini Pande, 2005. "Do Rural Banks Matter? Evidence from the Indian Social Banking Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 780-795, June.
    5. Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2013. "Investment in financial literacy and saving decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2779-2792.
    6. Sergio Firpo & Nicole M. Fortin & Thomas Lemieux, 2009. "Unconditional Quantile Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 953-973, May.
    7. Jenny C. Aker & Isaac M. Mbiti, 2010. "Mobile Phones and Economic Development in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(3), pages 207-232, Summer.
    8. repec:ldr:wpaper:94 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Valerie Møller & Willem Saris, 2001. "The Relationship between Subjective Well-being and Domain Satisfactions in South Africa," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 97-114, July.
    10. Banerjee, Asis Kumar, 2010. "A multidimensional Gini index," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 87-93, September.
    11. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", pages 129-137.
    12. Neil Lloyd & Murray Leibbrandt, 2014. "New evidence on subjective well-being and the definition of unemployment in South Africa," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 85-105, January.
    13. Markus Frolich & Blaise Melly, 2010. "Estimation of quantile treatment effects with Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(3), pages 423-457, September.
    14. Cally Ardington & Murray Leibbrandt, 2004. "Financial Services and the Informal Economy," SALDRU/CSSR Working Papers 066, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Steven Kinuthia). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aerccke.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.